姬强等.2014年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2014,29(1):8-12.

2014年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测

International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2014

姬强等
,xushiwei@caas.cn

         石油市场，油价预测，供需基本面，宏观经济

        oil market, oil price forecast, supply and demand, macro economy

        通过对影响国际油价的主要因素进行系统分析，我们认为，2014 年供需基本面和宏观经济走势将主导全年油价走势。美元汇率走强会在一定程度上打压油价，市场投机活动和地缘政治风险也都将对市场波动产生不同程度的影响。通过我们建立的定性定量相结合的油价综合分析预测系统，得到如下预测结果，2014 年国际油价水平将整体下降，Brent 年平均油价为104美元/桶，WTI年平均油价为95美元/桶，两者平均价差进一步缩小。

        The paper investigates the main factors influencing international oil market in 2014. It is found that international oil prices are mainly dominated by the global economy and oil supply fundamentals. The appreciation of US dollar index may suppress oil prices, while speculative activities and geopolitical risks can influence oil price volatilities to some extent. A synthetic oil price analysis and forecasting system was established in the study. The forecasting results demonstrate that the oil prices will present slightly downward trend, the Brent average year price of 2014 may stand at 104 dollar per barrel, and the WTI average year price mostly stand at 95 dollar per barrel. The gap between Brent and WTI will be narrower.