汤林彬,汪鹏,陈玮,韩雅文,金宇宁,彭子龙,陈伟强.中国稀土贸易格局与全球竞争力提升策略研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2024,39(12):2074-2085.

中国稀土贸易格局与全球竞争力提升策略研究

China’s rare earths trade flow analysis: Trade patterns and strategic insights

汤林彬¹
中国科学院城市环境研究所 中国科学院城市环境与健康重点实验室 厦门 361021
TANG Linbin¹
CAS Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
汪鹏^1,2,3
中国科学院城市环境研究所 中国科学院城市环境与健康重点实验室 厦门 361021;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049;中国科学院赣江创新研究院 赣州 341119
WANG Peng^1,2,3
CAS Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;Ganjiang Innovation Academy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ganzhou 341119, China
陈玮¹
中国科学院城市环境研究所 中国科学院城市环境与健康重点实验室 厦门 361021
CHEN Wei¹
CAS Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
韩雅文⁴
浙江理工大学 经济管理学院 杭州 310018
HAN Yawen⁴
School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Hangzhou 310018, China
金宇宁¹
中国科学院城市环境研究所 中国科学院城市环境与健康重点实验室 厦门 361021
JIN Yuning¹
CAS Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
彭子龙³
中国科学院赣江创新研究院 赣州 341119
PENG Zilong³
Ganjiang Innovation Academy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ganzhou 341119, China
陈伟强^1,2,3*
中国科学院城市环境研究所 中国科学院城市环境与健康重点实验室 厦门 361021;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049;中国科学院赣江创新研究院 赣州 341119
CHEN Wei-Qiang^1,2,3*
CAS Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;Ganjiang Innovation Academy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ganzhou 341119, China

         物质流分析|稀土|供应链安全|竞争策略

        material flow analysis|rare earths|supply chain security|competition strategy

        稀土是支撑低碳能源、航空航天与国防军工技术的战略性关键金属。目前，我国稀土产业“大而不强”，且在全球竞争中面临“多维挤压”风险；因此，亟须系统分析稀土供需和贸易格局，精准识别我国稀土全产业链的“堵点”和“痛点”，为将我国稀土资源优势充分转换为战略竞争优势提供对策。文章基于海关贸易数据，追踪了2015—2022年中国稀土全产业链多形态产品的贸易流向，刻画了中国稀土产品贸易的空间格局，探讨了我国在全球稀土价值链中的贡献、风险及优势提升策略。研究发现：（1）自2018年起，我国由稀土资源净出口国转为净进口国，稀土资源优势已向冶炼分离产业的规模优势转移，在全球稀土供应网络中扮演“冶炼分离中心”的角色；（2）在进口侧，我国同时进口供应链上游的稀土矿石、混合物等资源产品和下游的高纯稀土与高性能永磁体等高端应用产品，存在双重对外依赖风险；（3）在出口侧，我国以出口轻稀土分离产品及中低性能永磁体为主，呈现低值化和同质化特征，面临对外竞争优势不足的挑战。因此，建议进一步开展系统、多维、差异化的稀土全产业链精准管控及协同治理，包括：（1） 平衡国外、国内市场，兼顾国内规范化收储和海外多元化资源与产能布局，巩固我国已有的生产规模优势；（2）加紧突破稀土高性能永磁材料和高纯度稀土分离的制造技术瓶颈，引导稀土产业链延链强链，提升稀土在战略性新兴应用中的“黏性”，强化并扩大我国在稀土产业链下游制造的技术优势与掌控力；（3）支持稀土企业深度参与全球稀土资源治理与技术合作，强化以我国为核心的全球稀土供应链网络，推动共建稀土供应链一体化、全球化、公平化的良性竞争秩序。

        Rare earth elements are strategic critical metals that support low-carbon energy, aerospace, and defense technologies. Currently, China’s rare earth industry lacks competitiveness and faces the risk of “multidimensional pressures” in global competition. Therefore, it is crucial to systematically analyze the supply-demand and trade patterns of rare earths, accurately identify the bottlenecks and pain points in China’s entire rare earth industry chain, and provide strategies to transform China’s rare earth resource advantage into a strategic competitive edge. Based on customs trade data, this study traces the trade flows of various forms of rare earth products across the full industry chain in China from 2015 to 2022, delineates the spatial patterns of China’s rare earth product trade, and explores China’s contributions, risks, and strategies for improving its position in the global rare earth value chain. The study reveals that: (1) Since 2018, China has transitioned from being a net exporter to a net importer of rare earth resources, with the resource advantage shifting towards the scale advantage of the smelting and separation industry, positioning China as a “smelting and separation center” in the global rare earth supply network; (2) On the import side, China imports both upstream rare earth ores and mixed resource products, as well as downstream high-purity rare earths and high-performance permanent magnets, indicating a dual risk of external dependence; (3) On the export side, China primarily exports light rare earth separation products and medium-to-low performance permanent magnets, which are characterized by low added value and homogeneity, facing challenges related to insufficient competitive advantage. Therefore, it is recommended to further conduct systematic, multidimensional, and differentiated precision management and coordinated governance of the entire rare earth industry chain, including: (1) Balancing international and domestic markets, considering both domestic standardized stockpiling and overseas diversified resource and capacity layouts to consolidate China’s existing production scale advantage; (2) Accelerating breakthroughs in the manufacturing technology bottlenecks of high-performance rare earth permanent magnets and high-purity rare earth separation, guiding the extension and strengthening of the rare earth industry chain, enhancing the stickiness of rare earths in strategic emerging applications, and reinforcing and expanding China’s technological advantage and control in downstream manufacturing; (3) Supporting rare earth enterprises in deeply participating in global rare earth resource governance and technological cooperation, strengthening a China-centric global rare earth supply chain network, and promoting the co-construction of an integrated, globalized, and fair competition order for rare earth supply chains.