陈锡康,杨翠红,祝坤福,王会娟,李鑫茹,赵宇.2024年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2024,39(1):95-104.

2024年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议

Forecast of China’s economic growth rate in 2024 and policy suggestions

陈锡康^1,2
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190
CHEN Xikang^1,2
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
杨翠红^1,2,6*
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190
YANG Cuihong^1,2,6*
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
祝坤福³
中国人民大学 经济学院 北京 100872
ZHU Kunfu³
School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
王会娟⁴
中央财经大学 统计与数学学院 北京 100081
WANG Huijuan⁴
School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China
李鑫茹⁵
首都经济贸易大学 经济学院 北京 100070
LI Xinru⁵
School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
赵宇^1,2,6
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190
ZHAO Yu^1,2,6
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

         经济预测;经济形势分析;国内生产总值;政策建议

        economic forecast;economic situation analysis;gross domestic product (GDP);policy suggestions

        2023年在疫情以后国民经济保持恢复态势，中国经济向着积极的方向复苏。但是经济恢复存在一定波动，预测2024年中国经济将平稳较快增长。文章综合运用了投入产出技术、景气分析、专家分析、统计和计量经济模型来预测国内生产总值（GDP）。通过回顾2023年中国的经济运行状况，并考虑到当下国内外的形势，预测显示2024年中国经济有望保持平稳运行，增速达到5.3%左右；基于对当前经济状况的分析，文章提出如下建议：加强宏观政策跨周期和逆周期调节力度；提升产业链现代化水平，提高产业链韧性和竞争力；稳定支持中小企业的发展。

        In 2023, China’s economy maintained a recovery trend after the epidemic. However, the economic recovery showed the characteristics of wave-like development, and it is expected that China’s economy will grow steadily and rapidly in 2024. This study introduces a comprehensive approach to forecasting annual GDP growth, integrating input-output models, econometric models, prosperity analysis, expert insights, and scenario analysis. Reviewing China’s economic performance in 2023 and the prevailing global and domestic conditions, it is projected that China’s GDP growth rate will be around 5.3% in 2024. Based on this analysis, several policy recommendations are suggested, namely, intensifying macro-control policies for both cyclical and counter-cyclical phases; elevating the industrial chain’s modernization to enhance its resilience and competitiveness; and providing steady support to the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises.