张井勇,何静,张丽霞,杜振彩,李仁强,徐明.面向碳中和的“一带一路”气候变化主要特征与灾害风险研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2023,38(9):1371-1386.

面向碳中和的“一带一路”气候变化主要特征与灾害风险研究

Main climate change characteristics and disaster risks oriented towards carbon neutrality over the Belt and Road regions

张井勇^1,3*
中国科学院大气物理研究所 北京 100029;中国科学院大学 地球与行星科学学院 北京 100049
ZHANG Jingyong^1,3*
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
何静^1,4
中国科学院大气物理研究所 北京 100029;中山大学 大气科学学院 珠海 519082
HE Jing^1,4
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
张丽霞¹
中国科学院大气物理研究所 北京 100029
ZHANG Lixia¹
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
杜振彩¹
中国科学院大气物理研究所 北京 100029
DU Zhencai¹
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
李仁强²
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101
LI Renqiang²
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
徐明²
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101
XU Ming²
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

         气候变化;灾害风险;一带一路;碳中和;可持续发展

        climate change;disaster risk;Belt and Road;carbon neutrality;sustainable development

        人类社会已广泛认识到，气候变化是全球面临的最重大的风险危机之一。近50年是过去2 000年以来“一带一路”地区最暖时期，这主要归因于人类碳排放不断增加和累积。20世纪80年代以来，“一带一路”地区平均气候变化表现为增温速率快、降水和蒸发增加、海平面加速上升等特征，极端高温、暴雨洪涝、干旱等极端天气气候事件总体上频次和强度均快速增加；进入21世纪以来，“一带一路”地区每10年气候灾害发生次数超过20世纪70年代发生次数的5倍。“一带一路”地区近50年气候系统的显著变化主要可归因于人为温室气体排放，同时受到人为气溶胶排放、土地利用与覆盖变化等的影响。预估研究表明，实现全球碳中和前，“一带一路”地区平均与极端气候变化将沿着目前的趋势非线性发展，气候变化灾害风险整体上将呈现不断增加的趋势；碳中和时期，气候变化特征将呈现新格局，气候风险将出现新变化。文章综合分析并识别“一带一路”地区重大气候灾害风险及空间差异性，提出相关防范应对建议。

        Climate change has been widely recognized as one of most severe risks that the world faces. The recent 50 years are the warmest period in the last 2 000 years with respect to surface temperature averaged over the Belt and Road regions, which is mainly attributed to continuously increasing and accumulating of carbon emissions from human activities. Since the 1980s, over the Belt and Road regions mean climate change is characterized as surface warming at a faster rate, increased precipitation and evaporation, and accelerated sea level rise among others, and extreme weather and climate events such as hot extremes, rainstorms and floods, and droughts have become more frequent and severe. As a consequence, climate disasters over the Belt and Road regions in any past decade of the 21st century have increased above fivefold compared to those over the 1970s. Significant and widespread changes in climate systems over the Belt and Road regions in the recent 50 years are mainly driven by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and are also substantially affected by human-induced aerosols and land use and cover changes among others. Multi-model ensemble projections show that over the Belt and Road regions before achieving global carbon neutrality, mean and extreme climate changes will generally evolve nonlinearly along current trends, and climate change risks will continuously increase to an unprecedented level. In the period of carbon neutrality, climate change characteristics are projected to exhibit new patterns, with disaster risks undergoing new changes over the Belt and Road regions. Major climate disaster risks and their spatial heterogeneity in the following decades are further assessed and identified, and recommendations and strategies for dealing with climate disaster risks are provided.