陈锡康,杨翠红,祝坤福,王会娟,李鑫茹,尹杰.2023年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2023,38(1):81-90.
2023年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议
Forecast of China's Economic Growth Rate in 2023 and Policy Suggestions
2023年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议
Forecast of China's Economic Growth Rate in 2023 and Policy Suggestions
作者
陈锡康1,2
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190
CHEN Xikang1,2
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
杨翠红1,2,6*
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190
YANG Cuihong1,2,6*
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
祝坤福3
中国人民大学 经济学院 北京 100872
ZHU Kunfu3
School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
王会娟4
中央财经大学 统计与数学学院 北京 102206
WANG Huijuan4
School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206, China
李鑫茹5
首都经济贸易大学 经济学院 北京 100070
LI Xinru5
School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
尹杰1,2,6
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190
YIN Jie1,2,6
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190
CHEN Xikang1,2
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
杨翠红1,2,6*
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190
YANG Cuihong1,2,6*
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
祝坤福3
中国人民大学 经济学院 北京 100872
ZHU Kunfu3
School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
王会娟4
中央财经大学 统计与数学学院 北京 102206
WANG Huijuan4
School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206, China
李鑫茹5
首都经济贸易大学 经济学院 北京 100070
LI Xinru5
School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
尹杰1,2,6
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190
YIN Jie1,2,6
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
中文关键词
经济预测;经济形势分析;国内生产总值;政策建议
英文关键词
economic forecast;economic situation analysis;gross domestic product (GDP);policy suggestions
中文摘要
受新冠肺炎疫情及采取的对应措施等因素的影响，2022年中国经济增速回落。文章认为从中长期来看，中国的经济增速大致呈下降趋势，整体表现为波浪形，2023年经济发展仍存在较大不确定性。文章利用投入产出技术、统计方法与计量经济学、景气分析法、专家分析法、情景分析法等方法构建了国内生产总值（GDP）增速的系统综合因素预测法，基于对2022年中国经济增长的回顾与分析，结合当前国内外形势，预计2023年中国经济有望平稳运行，增速达到6.0%左右；通过当前经济形势分析，文章进一步提出如下建议：加大宏观政策调节力度，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，扩消费增就业促投资，着力稳定宏观经济大盘，防范化解重大领域风险，发挥我国在全球产业链上的优势等。
英文摘要
China's economic growth slowed down in 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the corresponding measures. There are great uncertainties in China's economic development in 2023. It is expected that China's medium and long-term economic growth rate will show a wavy downward trend. Based on input-output technology, econometrics, prosperity analysis, expert analysis, and scenario analysis, this study proposes a systematic integrated factor prediction approach on annual GDP growth. Through analysis of China's economic growth in 2022 and the current situation worldwide, China's economic growth rate is predicted to be about 6.0% in 2023, reverting to the normal level. The policy recommendations are further put forward based on the analysis, including strengthening the adjustment of macro-policy, implementing proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, boosting domestic consumption, increasing employment and promoting investment, striving to stabilize the macro-economic market, preventing and defusing risks in major fields, and leveraging China's advantages in the global industrial chain.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20221226001
作者简介
陈锡康 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员。研究领域:经济预测、宏观经济与产业经济、数量经济模型。
E-mail:xkchen@iss.ac.cn
CHEN Xikang Professor of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). His research interest includes economic forecasting, macroeconomics and quantitative economics.
E-mail:xkchen@iss.ac.cn
杨翠红 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院副院长、研究员,中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室主任。主要研究领域:投入产出技术与经济预测、全球价值链与贸易利益研究、宏观经济分析与政策。
E-mail:chyang@iss.ac.cn
YANG Cuihong Professor of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Director of the Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems of CAS. Her main research areas are input-output technique and economic forecasting, global value chain, macroeconomy analysis and policy research.
E-mail:chyang@iss.ac.cn
E-mail:xkchen@iss.ac.cn
CHEN Xikang Professor of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). His research interest includes economic forecasting, macroeconomics and quantitative economics.
E-mail:xkchen@iss.ac.cn
杨翠红 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院副院长、研究员,中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室主任。主要研究领域:投入产出技术与经济预测、全球价值链与贸易利益研究、宏观经济分析与政策。
E-mail:chyang@iss.ac.cn
YANG Cuihong Professor of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Director of the Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems of CAS. Her main research areas are input-output technique and economic forecasting, global value chain, macroeconomy analysis and policy research.
E-mail:chyang@iss.ac.cn
