杨翠红,林康,高翔.重大突发事件对粮食安全风险的影响[J].中国科学院院刊,,():.

重大突发事件对粮食安全风险的影响

Impact of Major Emergencies on Food Security Risks

杨翠红 林康 高翔

         重大突发事件，粮食安全，生产风险，消费风险，流通风险

        major emergencies, food security, production risk, consumption risk, circulation risk

        近年来国际重大突发事件频发，严重威胁了中国及全球粮食安全。文章从生产、消费、流通3个环节分析重大突发事件对粮食安全造成的主要风险。在生产环节，重大突发事件将限制劳动力和农资的投入，进而直接制约粮食的生产；在消费环节，重大突发事件的爆发往往会导致粮食价格的上涨、居民收入水平的下降和食品加工的受阻，进而削弱人们的粮食购买能力和消费能力；在流通环节，重大突发事件可能导致国内粮食运输受阻，以及国际贸易中断，进而阻碍粮食生产和粮食需求的有效对接，加剧粮食危机爆发的风险。中国粮食的高自给率不仅有力地保障了国内粮食安全，更为国际粮食供需安全创造了空间。文章最后对中国粮食安全提出了相应的政策建议。

        In recent years, the probability and frequency of international major emergencies are on the rise, which have threatened the global food security. The study decomposes the food supply chain into production section, consumption section, and circulation section; and then analyzes the risks of food security in each section when facing the major emergencies. In the production section, major emergencies restrict the inputs of labor and agricultural production materials, limiting food supply directly. In the consumption section, major emergencies usually increase the food price and decrease the resident income, and thus, decline the purchasing power of food and exacerbate the food crisis. In the circulation section, major emergencies may lead to the block of domestic food transportation and the interruption of international trade, which mismatches the food production and food consumption. In addition, the study puts forward that China’s high grain self-sufficiency rate not only ensures Chinese food security, but also contributes to the global food security. The suggestions are proposed in the end to Chinese and global food security, respectively.