杨翠红,林康,高翔,陈锡康,汪寿阳.“十四五”时期我国粮食生产的发展态势及风险分析[J].中国科学院院刊,2022,37(8):1088-1098.

“十四五”时期我国粮食生产的发展态势及风险分析

Analysis on Development and Risks of China's Food Production During 14th Five-Year Plan Period
作者
杨翠红1,2,3,4
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100049
YANG Cuihong1,2,3,4
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
林康1,2,3,4
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100049
LIN Kang1,2,3,4
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
高翔1,2,3*
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室 北京 100190
GAO Xiang1,2,3*
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
陈锡康1,2,3
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室 北京 100190
CHEN Xikang1,2,3
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
汪寿阳1,2,3,4
中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100049
WANG Shouyang1,2,3,4
Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information Systems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
中文关键词
         粮食产量;粮食生产;风险;"十四五"时期
英文关键词
        grain output;food production;risks;14th Five-Year Plan period
中文摘要
        民为国本,粮为民本,如何在“十四五”时期有效保障我国粮食安全,缓解各类潜在风险,是目前亟待解决的问题。文章对“十四五”时期我国粮食生产的发展态势进行展望,并聚焦分析粮食生产的主要风险因素。文章认为“十四五”时期,我国粮食生产将平稳发展,粮食产量呈上升趋势,在“十四五”期末有望达到6.9亿吨以上。提出“十四五”时期我国粮食生产主要面临自然资源约束加剧,劳动力约束加大,种子产业发展缓慢,规模化、机械化程度不高,生产过度集中,以及重大突发事件频发等潜在风险因素。最后,针对上述风险因素提出了政策建议。
英文摘要
        Food security is crucial to national security. Thus, it is an urgent task to figure out the potential risks that threaten China's food security during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and how to cope with those risks. This paper provides an outlook for the development of China's food production during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and then points out the potential risks faced by food production. The paper demonstrates that China's food production will achieve a steady development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and the grain output will reach more than 690 Mt by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The paper argues that the main potential risks faced by food production during the 14th Five-Year Plan period include the increasing intensive constraints on natural and labor resources, the slow development of the seed industry, the low degree of scale and mechanization, the over-concentration phenomenon, and the frequent occurrence of major events. In the end, corresponding suggestions are proposed corresponding to the above risks.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20220118001
作者简介
杨翠红 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员,中国科学院管理、决策与信息系统重点实验室主任。中国投入产出学会常务副理事长。曾任国际投入产出协会副理事长。主要研究领域:投入产出技术与经济预测、全球价值链与贸易利益研究、宏观经济分析与政策。
E-mail:chyang@iss.ac.cn
YANG Cuihong Professor of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Director of CAS Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Informaton Systems. She is currently the Executive Vice President of the Chinese Input-Output Association and was the Vice President of International Input-Output Association (2013-2018). Her main research areas are input-output technique and economic forecasting, global value chain, macroeconomy analysis and policy research.
E-mail:chyang@iss.ac.cn
高翔 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院博士后,美国伊利诺伊大学香槟分校访问学者。主要研究领域:全球价值链、产业转移、投入产出技术等。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目,在 Cambridge Journal of Regions、Economy and Society、Journal of Industrial Ecology、《国际贸易问题》和《管理科学学报》等核心学术期刊发表论文10余篇。
E-mail:gaoxiang@amss.ac.cn
GAO Xiang Ph.D. in Management, Postdoctoral Associate of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), visiting scholar of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. His research focuses on the global value chain, the industry relocation, the input-output techniques, etc. He is undertaking the project sponsored by the Young Scientists Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China. He has published more than 10 papers in core academic journals such as Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Journal of Industrial Ecology, Journal of International Trade, Journal of Management Science in China, etc.
E-mail:gaoxiang@amss.ac.cn
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