邓建军,刘安蓉,曹晓阳,张科,白光祖,陈悦,高智杰,戴海闻,王伟楠.颠覆性技术早期识别方法框架研究——基于科学端的视角[J].中国科学院院刊,2022,37(5):674-684.
颠覆性技术早期识别方法框架研究——基于科学端的视角
Methodological Framework of Identifying Disruptive Technologies on Emerging Stage: Based on Science
颠覆性技术早期识别方法框架研究——基于科学端的视角
Methodological Framework of Identifying Disruptive Technologies on Emerging Stage: Based on Science
作者
邓建军1
中国工程物理研究院流体物理研究所 绵阳 621900
DENG Jianjun1
Institute of Fluid Physics, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621900, China
刘安蓉2*
中国工程科技创新战略研究院 北京 100088
LIU Anrong2*
Chinese Academy of Engineering Innovation Strategy, Beijing 100088, China
曹晓阳2
中国工程科技创新战略研究院 北京 100088
CAO Xiaoyang2
Chinese Academy of Engineering Innovation Strategy, Beijing 100088, China
张科3
中国工程物理研究院 绵阳 621900
ZHANG Ke3
China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621900, China
白光祖4
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 兰州 730000
BAI Guangzu4
Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
陈悦5
大连理工大学 科学学与科技管理研究所/WISE实验室 大连 116085
CHEN Yue5
Institute of Science of Science and S&T Management &WISE Lab, Dalian 116085, China
高智杰6
北京理工大学 中国工程科技前沿交叉战略研究中心 北京 100081
GAO Zhijie6
Center for Strategic Research on Frontier and Interdisciplinary Engineering Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
戴海闻7
广东工业大学 创新理论与创新管理研究中心 广州 510520
DAI Haiwen7
Research Center for Innovation Theory and Innovation Management, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510520, China
王伟楠8
北京工业大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100022
WANG Weinan8
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100022, China
中国工程物理研究院流体物理研究所 绵阳 621900
DENG Jianjun1
Institute of Fluid Physics, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621900, China
刘安蓉2*
中国工程科技创新战略研究院 北京 100088
LIU Anrong2*
Chinese Academy of Engineering Innovation Strategy, Beijing 100088, China
曹晓阳2
中国工程科技创新战略研究院 北京 100088
CAO Xiaoyang2
Chinese Academy of Engineering Innovation Strategy, Beijing 100088, China
张科3
中国工程物理研究院 绵阳 621900
ZHANG Ke3
China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621900, China
白光祖4
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 兰州 730000
BAI Guangzu4
Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
陈悦5
大连理工大学 科学学与科技管理研究所/WISE实验室 大连 116085
CHEN Yue5
Institute of Science of Science and S&T Management &WISE Lab, Dalian 116085, China
高智杰6
北京理工大学 中国工程科技前沿交叉战略研究中心 北京 100081
GAO Zhijie6
Center for Strategic Research on Frontier and Interdisciplinary Engineering Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
戴海闻7
广东工业大学 创新理论与创新管理研究中心 广州 510520
DAI Haiwen7
Research Center for Innovation Theory and Innovation Management, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510520, China
王伟楠8
北京工业大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100022
WANG Weinan8
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100022, China
中文关键词
颠覆性技术;技术识别;方法框架;早期;科学端
英文关键词
disruptive technology;technology identification;methodological framework;on emerging stage;based on science
中文摘要
当前，我国高水平科技自立自强亟待颠覆性技术开新局、走新途。布局发展颠覆性技术是一项战略性的复杂系统工程，而颠覆性技术的识别是关键和前提。文章基于颠覆性技术变轨跃迁、由边缘力量到未来主流“10→3→1”收敛的底层逻辑，针对科技驱动的来源方式提出“发现—遴选—评价”的识别思路，开发出一套从科学端出发的颠覆性技术识别方法框架，以期为颠覆性技术的早期识别提供参考。
英文摘要
To realize sci-tech self-reliance and self-strengthening at higher levels in China, it is imperative for disruptive technologies to embark on a new journey and open new horizons. The layout and development of disruptive technologies is a complicated and systematic project with strategic significance, in which the identification of disruptive technologies holds the key and serves as the premise. To this end, based on the underlying logic that disruptive technologies are destined to transit from marginalized forces to mainstream power in the future through the process of 10→3→1 constringency, on the understanding that the generation of disruptive technologies is driven by science and technology, the study puts forward the identifying approach of "identifying-selecting-evaluating", and develops a methodological framework for identifying disruptive technologies based on science with a view to providing reference for the early identification of disruptive technologies.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20211205004
作者简介
邓建军 中国工程院院士。中国工程物理研究院流体物理研究所研究员。主要研究领域:脉冲功率技术、高功率加速器、Z箍缩物理与技术。
E-mail:jjdeng@caep.cn
DENG Jianjun Ph.D.,Academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering,Professor of Institute of Fluid Physics,China Academy of Engineering Physics (CAEP).His research focuses on pulsed power technology,high power accelerator,and Z-pinch physics and technology.
E-mail:jjdeng@caep.cn
刘安蓉 中国工程科技创新战略研究院研究员。主要研究领域:颠覆性技术创新。
E-mail:liuanrong01@caep.cn
LIU Anrong Professor in Chinese Academy of Engineering Innovation Strategy (CAEIS).Her main research focuses on the innovation of disruptive technology.
E-mail:liuanrong01@caep.cn
E-mail:jjdeng@caep.cn
DENG Jianjun Ph.D.,Academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering,Professor of Institute of Fluid Physics,China Academy of Engineering Physics (CAEP).His research focuses on pulsed power technology,high power accelerator,and Z-pinch physics and technology.
E-mail:jjdeng@caep.cn
刘安蓉 中国工程科技创新战略研究院研究员。主要研究领域:颠覆性技术创新。
E-mail:liuanrong01@caep.cn
LIU Anrong Professor in Chinese Academy of Engineering Innovation Strategy (CAEIS).Her main research focuses on the innovation of disruptive technology.
E-mail:liuanrong01@caep.cn
