周天军,陈晓龙.《巴黎协定》温控目标下未来碳排放空间的准确估算问题辨析[J].中国科学院院刊,2022,37(2):216-229.

《巴黎协定》温控目标下未来碳排放空间的准确估算问题辨析

Perspective on Challenges in Accurately Estimating Remaining Carbon Budget for Climate Targets of Paris Agreement

周天军^1,2*
中国科学院大气物理研究所 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 北京 100029;中国科学院大学 地球与行星科学学院 北京 100049
ZHOU Tianjun^1,2*
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
陈晓龙¹
中国科学院大气物理研究所 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 北京 100029
CHEN Xiaolong¹
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

         巴黎协定;温控目标;政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC);未来碳排放空间

        Paris Agreement;climate targets;Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC);remaining carbon budget

        为了应对工业化以来的全球增暖问题，《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约方通过《巴黎协定》设定了“将全球平均气温较前工业化时期上升幅度控制在2℃以内，并努力将温度上升幅度限制在1.5℃以内”的目标。当前，全球平均表面温度相对工业革命前的升温已超过1℃，累积二氧化碳（CO₂）排放达到2 390 Gt。因此，要实现《巴黎协定》的1.5℃和2℃温控目标，需要准确估算未来剩余的碳排放空间。文章在概述地球系统碳循环与升温关系的基础上，对未来碳排放空间的估算方法进行评述，分析讨论了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第六次评估报告（AR6）和IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）发布以来在碳排放空间估算方面的国际研究进展，探究了造成估算结果差异的原因并指出影响未来碳排放空间估算准确性的关键因素。最后，围绕未来碳排放空间的准确估算问题，提出了亟待加强的研究领域。文章可为科学界在温控目标下准确估算未来碳排放空间核算数据及未来的研究重点方向提供参考。

        In 2015, by signing up to the Paris Agreement on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) parties pledged to keep global temperatures "well below" 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and to "pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5℃". Limiting warming to 1.5℃/2℃ requires strictly limiting the total amount of carbon emissions between now and the end of the century. Global mean surface temperature has already witnessed a 1℃ more warming since the pre-industrial era and the cumulative anthropogenic CO₂ emission has reached around 2 390 Gt CO₂. An accurate estimation of the allowable amount of additional carbon emissions, known as the "remaining carbon budget", is crucial to climate change mitigation activities. In this study, we hope to provide a commentary on improving the quality and reducing the uncertainty in remaining carbon budget estimation. After a brief review on the relationship between carbon cycle and global warming, we introduce the methods for estimating the remaining carbon budget and compare the results presented in a series of assessment reports since IPCC AR5 and IPCC AR6. The reasons for the different estimations of remaining carbon budget presented in the reports are discussed. Finally, the priorities of future research fields/directions toward an accurate estimation of remaining carbon budget are proposed.