张鸿宇,黄晓丹,张达,张希良.加速能源转型的经济社会效益评估[J].中国科学院院刊,2021,36(9):1039-1048.
加速能源转型的经济社会效益评估
Evaluating Economic and Social Benefits of Accelerated Energy Transition
加速能源转型的经济社会效益评估
Evaluating Economic and Social Benefits of Accelerated Energy Transition
作者
张鸿宇
清华大学 能源环境经济研究所 北京 100084
ZHANG Hongyu
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
黄晓丹
清华大学 能源环境经济研究所 北京 100084
HUANG Xiaodan
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
张达
清华大学 能源环境经济研究所 北京 100084
ZHANG Da
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
张希良*
清华大学 能源环境经济研究所 北京 100084
ZHANG Xiliang*
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
清华大学 能源环境经济研究所 北京 100084
ZHANG Hongyu
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
黄晓丹
清华大学 能源环境经济研究所 北京 100084
HUANG Xiaodan
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
张达
清华大学 能源环境经济研究所 北京 100084
ZHANG Da
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
张希良*
清华大学 能源环境经济研究所 北京 100084
ZHANG Xiliang*
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
中文关键词
碳中和;能源转型;新能源;社会效益
英文关键词
carbon neutrality;energy transition;new energy;social benefits
中文摘要
在碳中和背景下，我国能源系统需要深度转型，而发展新能源是能源转型的核心。文章利用综合经济社会效益评价模型框架，比较了当前能源系统转型力度下和未来能源系统加速转型下的经济社会成本和收益。研究表明，以新能源为主体的能源系统深度转型是实现2060年碳中和目标和美丽中国的空气质量要求的必要条件；风光发电的大规模发展将促进自身成本和我国用能成本的进一步下降，带动我国光伏和风电设备出口及其他出口行业的发展，驱动经济的持续增长。加速能源转型还将带动就业岗位的净增长和环境健康效益，避免大量因碳排放造成的社会成本。
英文摘要
To achieve carbon neutrality, China's energy system needs a radical transition, and the development of new energy is of central importance. Based on the integrated assessment modeling framework, this study compares economic and social costs and benefits between a scenario reflecting the current energy transition momentum and a scenario of accelerated energy transition. We show that the accelerated energy transition dominated by new energy is essential to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 and the air quality target required by Beautiful China. The large development of wind and solar power will further reduce their technology costs and the overall energy costs, which will benefit China's wind and solar equipment export and other exporting industries, supporting sustainable economic growth. In addition, the accelerated energy transition will create more jobs and health benefits and avoid substantial social costs of carbon emissions.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20210813003
作者简介
张鸿宇 清华大学能源环境经济研究所博士生。主要研究领域:能源系统分析、低碳能源转型。
E-mail:zhang-hy18@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
ZHANG Hongyu Ph.D. student of Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University. Her research focuses on energy system analysis and low-carbon energy economy transformation.
E-mail:zhang-hy18@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
张希良 清华大学能源环境经济研究所所长、教授。国家生态环境保护专业技术领军人才(气候变化领域),中国能源研究会常务理事兼能源系统工程专业委员会主任委员。研究兴趣包括低碳能源转型、气候变化经济学、气候变化政策与机制设计等。主持了包括国家自然科学基金重大项目、国家重点研发计划项目和国家社会科学基金重大项目在内的多项国家级气候变化研究项目。联合国气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四次和第五次《气候变化评估报告》的主要作者(Lead Author)。
E-mail:zhang_xl@tsinghua.edu.cn
ZHANG Xiliang Professor of Management Science and Engineering, and Director of the Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University. His current research interests include low-carbon energy economy transformation, climate change economics, and climate change policy and mechanism design. Dr. Zhang is the Chair of the Energy Systems Engineering Committee of the China Energy Research Society. He is a lead author of the fourth and fifth IPCC Climate Change Assessment Report. He was granted the Leading Talent Award by Ministry of Ecology and Environment in 2020. He has hosted a number of national level research programs sponsored by Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of China, etc.
E-mail:zhang_xl@tsinghua.edu.cn
E-mail:zhang-hy18@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
ZHANG Hongyu Ph.D. student of Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University. Her research focuses on energy system analysis and low-carbon energy economy transformation.
E-mail:zhang-hy18@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
张希良 清华大学能源环境经济研究所所长、教授。国家生态环境保护专业技术领军人才(气候变化领域),中国能源研究会常务理事兼能源系统工程专业委员会主任委员。研究兴趣包括低碳能源转型、气候变化经济学、气候变化政策与机制设计等。主持了包括国家自然科学基金重大项目、国家重点研发计划项目和国家社会科学基金重大项目在内的多项国家级气候变化研究项目。联合国气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四次和第五次《气候变化评估报告》的主要作者(Lead Author)。
E-mail:zhang_xl@tsinghua.edu.cn
ZHANG Xiliang Professor of Management Science and Engineering, and Director of the Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University. His current research interests include low-carbon energy economy transformation, climate change economics, and climate change policy and mechanism design. Dr. Zhang is the Chair of the Energy Systems Engineering Committee of the China Energy Research Society. He is a lead author of the fourth and fifth IPCC Climate Change Assessment Report. He was granted the Leading Talent Award by Ministry of Ecology and Environment in 2020. He has hosted a number of national level research programs sponsored by Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of China, etc.
E-mail:zhang_xl@tsinghua.edu.cn
