王鑫,张慧琴,孙昌璞.从智库研究到智库科学[J].中国科学院院刊,2021,36(7):797-806.
从智库研究到智库科学
From Strategy Consulting Research to Science of Think Tank
从智库研究到智库科学
From Strategy Consulting Research to Science of Think Tank
作者
王鑫1,2
中国工程物理研究院研究生院 北京 100193;中国工程科技创新战略研究院 北京 100088
WANG Xin1,2
Graduate School of China Academy of Engineering Physics, Beijing 100193, China;Chinese Academy of Engineering Innovation Strategy, Beijing 100088, China
张慧琴1
中国工程物理研究院研究生院 北京 100193
ZHANG Huiqin1
Graduate School of China Academy of Engineering Physics, Beijing 100193, China
孙昌璞1*
中国工程物理研究院研究生院 北京 100193
SUN Changpu1*
Graduate School of China Academy of Engineering Physics, Beijing 100193, China
中国工程物理研究院研究生院 北京 100193;中国工程科技创新战略研究院 北京 100088
WANG Xin1,2
Graduate School of China Academy of Engineering Physics, Beijing 100193, China;Chinese Academy of Engineering Innovation Strategy, Beijing 100088, China
张慧琴1
中国工程物理研究院研究生院 北京 100193
ZHANG Huiqin1
Graduate School of China Academy of Engineering Physics, Beijing 100193, China
孙昌璞1*
中国工程物理研究院研究生院 北京 100193
SUN Changpu1*
Graduate School of China Academy of Engineering Physics, Beijing 100193, China
中文关键词
战略咨询;智库科学;可证伪
英文关键词
strategy consulting;science of think tank;falsifiability
中文摘要
智库研究是提升国家治理能力的重要手段之一。智库研究涉及多学科和多研究领域知识的综合运用，其研究成果一经采用具有较大的影响力。文章认为智库研究应提升为智库科学，即智库研究应具有广泛公认的科学研究属性——可证伪性。智库研究要基于准确、完备（合理选择）的事实和数据，建立客观的科学模型，通过定性研究方法和定量分析工具，给出有预测能力的客观的战略咨询方案。通过可控的纠错和证伪过程，使得模型和方法中共因性和多因性逐步减少，最终得到普适结论，并在应用实践中得到验证。
英文摘要
Think tank researches are the main element to advance the modernization of China's capacity for governance, and they are multidisciplinary related to many research areas. The suggestions of think tank researches may have massive influences as long as they are adapted. In this study, we recommend that the think tank researches should be advanced to the science of think tank. The think tank researches should follow the widely recognized scientific research character-falsifiability. Based on solid data and evidences, think tank researches build objective models, develop qualitative methods and quantitative tools, and generate objective strategic consulting proposals with predictive ability. By controllable error correction and falsification process, we gradually eliminate the concurrence of causes and the plurality of causes in the models and methods, get the general conclusion and then the models and methods will be verified when applied.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20210323002
作者简介
王鑫 中国工程物理研究院研究生院、中国工程科技创新战略研究院副研究员。主要从事科技政策与科技发展战略研究,重点关注基础科学研究发展及其相关趋势。曾主持国家自然科学基金项目和中国科学院重点部署项目,参与中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目、中国科学院院士咨询项目和国家高端智库试点项目等若干项目。
E-mail:xinwang@gscaep.ac.cn
WANG Xin Assistant Professor at Graduate School of China Academy of Engineering Physics and Chinese Academy of Engineering Innovation Strategy, Ph.D. His main research areas cover scientific policies and scientific development strategy, with special focus on basic science research development and trends. He has hosted the projects sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and Key Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Now, he is participating the strategic and consulting program of Chinese Academy of Engineering, CAS Academician Consulting Projects, and Major Project of China Top Think Tanks Pilot.
E-mail:xinwang@gscaep.ac.cn
孙昌璞 中国科学院院士,发展中国家科学院院士。中国工程物理研究院研究生院院长,北京计算科学研究中心教授。长期从事量子物理、数学物理及量子信息基础理论研究。近年主要从事有限系统和生命过程中的量子相干效应和复杂系统的可靠性等研究,积极探索国家需求牵引的基础研究模式创新。国家自然科学基金委员会委员及第七届 "理论物理专款"学术领导小组组长,中国科学院哲学研究所学术委员会主任。组织参与我国物理学科战略规划工作。发表学术论文 300余篇,被引用 14 000余次。荣获国家自然科学奖二等奖和美国科学信息研究所"经典引文奖"等奖励,以及全国先进工作者等荣誉称号。
E-mail:suncp@gscaep.ac.cn
SUN Changpu Academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Fellow of the World Academy of Sciences for the advancement of science in developing countries (TWAS), Dean of Graduate School of China Academy of Engineering Physics, and Professor of Beijing Computational Science Research Center. His research interests include quantum physics, mathematical physics, and quantum information processing. In recent years, he has mainly explored photon transmission in low-dimensional structures, quantum coherence effects in biological processes, reliability of complex systems, etc. He is also exploring the model innovation of basic research driven by national demands. At present, he is a member of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), leader of the Academic Leading Group for the Seventh Theoretical Physics Special Fund of NSFC, and also Director of the Academic Committee of the Institute of Philosophy, CAS. He has participated in the strategic planning of China's physics discipline. He has published more than 300 academic papers, with over 14 000 cites. He achieved many prizes including the second prize of National Natural Science Award in China, ISI Citation Classic Award, the National Model Employee of China, etc.
E-mail:suncp@gscaep.ac.cn
E-mail:xinwang@gscaep.ac.cn
WANG Xin Assistant Professor at Graduate School of China Academy of Engineering Physics and Chinese Academy of Engineering Innovation Strategy, Ph.D. His main research areas cover scientific policies and scientific development strategy, with special focus on basic science research development and trends. He has hosted the projects sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and Key Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Now, he is participating the strategic and consulting program of Chinese Academy of Engineering, CAS Academician Consulting Projects, and Major Project of China Top Think Tanks Pilot.
E-mail:xinwang@gscaep.ac.cn
孙昌璞 中国科学院院士,发展中国家科学院院士。中国工程物理研究院研究生院院长,北京计算科学研究中心教授。长期从事量子物理、数学物理及量子信息基础理论研究。近年主要从事有限系统和生命过程中的量子相干效应和复杂系统的可靠性等研究,积极探索国家需求牵引的基础研究模式创新。国家自然科学基金委员会委员及第七届 "理论物理专款"学术领导小组组长,中国科学院哲学研究所学术委员会主任。组织参与我国物理学科战略规划工作。发表学术论文 300余篇,被引用 14 000余次。荣获国家自然科学奖二等奖和美国科学信息研究所"经典引文奖"等奖励,以及全国先进工作者等荣誉称号。
E-mail:suncp@gscaep.ac.cn
SUN Changpu Academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Fellow of the World Academy of Sciences for the advancement of science in developing countries (TWAS), Dean of Graduate School of China Academy of Engineering Physics, and Professor of Beijing Computational Science Research Center. His research interests include quantum physics, mathematical physics, and quantum information processing. In recent years, he has mainly explored photon transmission in low-dimensional structures, quantum coherence effects in biological processes, reliability of complex systems, etc. He is also exploring the model innovation of basic research driven by national demands. At present, he is a member of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), leader of the Academic Leading Group for the Seventh Theoretical Physics Special Fund of NSFC, and also Director of the Academic Committee of the Institute of Philosophy, CAS. He has participated in the strategic planning of China's physics discipline. He has published more than 300 academic papers, with over 14 000 cites. He achieved many prizes including the second prize of National Natural Science Award in China, ISI Citation Classic Award, the National Model Employee of China, etc.
E-mail:suncp@gscaep.ac.cn
