冷伏海,李宏,王建芳,惠仲阳,张秋菊,陈晓怡,葛春雷,刘栋,叶京,贾晓琪,李超,艾超,曹华俊.面向2030年的人与科技发展愿景研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2021,36(2):199-207.

面向2030年的人与科技发展愿景研究

Visions and Scenarios of People and Science and Technology Development to 2030

冷伏海
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
LENG Fuhai
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
李宏
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
LI Hong
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
王建芳
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
WANG Jianfang
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
惠仲阳
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
XI Zhongyang
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
张秋菊
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
ZHANG Qiuju
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
陈晓怡
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
CHEN Xiaoyi
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
葛春雷
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
GE Chunlei
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
刘栋
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
LIU Dong
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
叶京
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
YE Jing
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
贾晓琪
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
JIA Xiaoqi
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
李超
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
LI Chao
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
艾超
华为技术有限公司 深圳 518129
AI Chao
Huawei Technologies Group Co. Ltd., Shenzhen 518129, China
曹华俊
华为技术有限公司 深圳 518129
CAO Huajun
Huawei Technologies Group Co. Ltd., Shenzhen 518129, China

         愿景;场景;社会发展趋势;全景图;技术群

        vision;scenario;social development trend;human-based vision;technology group

        未来10—15年，科技进步在改变产业结构和全球经济增长方向的同时，将深刻改变人自身对衣食住行等诸多方面的需求及其满足形式。借鉴世界主要国家、国际组织或企业面向未来在经济社会与科技创新发展领域进行的前瞻与预见工作，通过深入系统的信息和知识元分析，从社会发展趋势、未来发展愿景、具体场景、未来关键技术群4个方面，文章重点阐述了生活、工作、健康、信息、安全5个领域的全景图，为擘画中国未来一段时期发展愿景和科技创新需求场景提供参考。

        In the next 10 to 15 years, scientific and technological progress will change the industrial structure and global economic growth, and will profoundly change people’s needs for food, clothing, housing, transportation and their forms of the needs to meet. Based on the foresight analysis data of economic, social, and technological development from major countries and international organizations or big enterprises, with the method of information and knowledge element analysis, this study describes humanbased vision from the following five aspects, life, work, health, information, and safety. For each aspect, we put forward some social development trends, visions, specific scenarios, and key future technology groups. All of these provide references for drawing up China's future development vision and technological innovation demands.