葛咏,李强子,凌峰,张源,姚永慧,刘庆生,董文,吴骅,李毅,任周鹏.“一带一路”关键节点区域极端气候风险评价及应对策略[J].中国科学院院刊,2021,36(2):170-178.

“一带一路”关键节点区域极端气候风险评价及应对策略

Risk Assessment and Response Strategies for Extreme Climate Events in Key Nodes of the Belt and Road

葛咏
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101
GE Yong
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
李强子
中国科学院空天信息创新研究院 北京 100094
LI Qiangzi
Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
凌峰
中国科学院精密测量科学与技术创新研究院 武汉 430071
LING Feng
Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, China
张源
中国科学院空天信息创新研究院 北京 100094
ZHANG Yuan
Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
姚永慧
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101
YAO Yonghui
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
刘庆生
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101
LIU Qingsheng
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
董文
中国科学院空天信息创新研究院 北京 100094
DONG Wen
Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
吴骅
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101
WU Hua
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
李毅
中国科学院空天信息创新研究院 北京 100094
LI Yi
Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
任周鹏
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101
REN Zhoupeng
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

         风险评估;精细尺度;极端气候风险;“一带一路”;关键节点

        risk assessment;fine-scale;extreme climate risk;Belt and Road;key nodes

        在全球气候变化的大情景下，高温热浪、极端降水、极端干旱和风暴潮事件在“一带一路”沿线大部分区域均呈增强趋势，严重威胁“一带一路”沿线国家的人身和财产安全。文章针对“一带一路”沿线区域极端气候事件风险识别与评价工作中存在的评估尺度粗且单一、应对策略薄弱等问题，围绕极端干旱、极端降水、高温热浪、风暴潮4类代表性极端气候事件，建立了多尺度极端气候风险评估技术体系，完成了千米、百米和十米尺度的风险评估工作，实现了对“一带一路”沿线区域4类极端气候风险的空间分布、发展趋势、主要影响因素的把握，为更合理、有效地应对灾害，减少和转移灾害风险，减少人身和财产损失等提供科学支撑。

        In the context of global climate change, heat waves, extreme precipitation, extreme droughts and storm surges have increased in most areas of the Belt and Road, which seriously threatens the personal and property safety of countries along the Belt and Road. This study focuses on dealing with the issues associated with the risk identification and assessment of extreme climate events in the “Belt and Road” region, including the coarse or single assessment scale and weak response strategies. It develops a multi-scale extreme climate risk assessment framework, and completes the risk assessment of four representative extreme climate events including heat waves, extreme precipitation, extreme droughts, and storm surges at three scales of 1 km, 100 m, and 10 m. The risk assessment results reveal the spatial distribution, temporal dynamics, and major influencing factors of the 4 types of extreme climate risks in the Belt and Road region. The better understanding of these can provide scientific support for more reasonable and effective response to disasters, reduction and transfer of risks, and reduction of personal and property losses.