邹强,郭晓军,罗渝,姜元俊,崔鹏,苏立君,欧国强,潘华利,刘维明.中巴经济走廊滑坡泥石流灾害格局与风险应对[J].中国科学院院刊,2021,36(2):160-169.

中巴经济走廊滑坡泥石流灾害格局与风险应对

Spatial Pattern and Response of Landslide and Debris Flow Risks in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

邹强
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041;中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心 北京 100101;中国科学院-巴基斯坦高等教育委员会 中国-巴基斯坦地球科学研究中心 伊斯兰堡 45320
ZOU Qiang
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences-Higher Education Commission of Pakistan, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan
郭晓军
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041
GUO Xiaojun
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
罗渝
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041
LUO Yu
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
姜元俊
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041
JIANG Yuanjun
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
崔鹏
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041;中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心 北京 100101;中国科学院-巴基斯坦高等教育委员会 中国-巴基斯坦地球科学研究中心 伊斯兰堡 45320;中国科学院大学 北京 100049
CUI Peng
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences-Higher Education Commission of Pakistan, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
苏立君
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041;中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心 北京 100101;中国科学院-巴基斯坦高等教育委员会 中国-巴基斯坦地球科学研究中心 伊斯兰堡 45320;中国科学院大学 北京 100049
SU Lijun
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences-Higher Education Commission of Pakistan, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
欧国强
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041
OU Guoqiang
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
潘华利
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041
PAN Huali
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
刘维明
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041;中国科学院-巴基斯坦高等教育委员会 中国-巴基斯坦地球科学研究中心 伊斯兰堡 45320
LIU Weiming
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences-Higher Education Commission of Pakistan, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan

         中巴经济走廊;滑坡;泥石流;空间格局;风险现状;变化趋势;减灾对策;“一带一路”

        China-Pakistan Economic Corridor;landslide;debris flow;spatial pattern;risk assessment;development trend;disaster mitigation countermeasures;Belt and Road Initiative

        中巴经济走廊位于“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”交汇处，是“一带一路”建设的先行先试区，战略意义重大。受特殊的自然条件控制，中巴经济走廊滑坡泥石流灾害广泛发育、活动性强、危害严重，是走廊建设与民生安全的重大威胁。文章聚焦中巴经济走廊滑坡和泥石流的空间格局，评估灾害风险，预测未来发展趋势，并针对性提出相关应对策略。中巴经济走廊共查明滑坡584处、崩塌116处、泥石流1 669处，主要分布在走廊北部山区。总体而言，走廊北部区域危险性和综合风险较高，东南部较低。在未来极罕遇地震情景下，中巴经济走廊高与极高滑坡易发区域的面积将由多遇地震条件下的0.01%显著增长至1.4%，且主要发生在艾肯尔特断裂带北部段和卡兹克阿尔特断裂带北部段之间、米亚断裂北部段和布伦口断裂中部断裂区域；未来气候变化趋势分析表明降雨和温度都将呈不同程度增加和上升趋势，大部分流域的泥石流易发性均有所提高，其中高易发流域将达到总数的13.5%，较之前明显增多。建议加强中巴经济走廊孕灾基础数据采集和重点灾点详查，开展风险评估和监测预警，同时提前制定应急预案。

        Landslides and debris flows caused significant threat to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. This study introduced the spatial pattern of the relevant mountainous hazards and assessed the hazards risks, predicted the development trends, and proposed the relevant countermeasures as well. 584 landslides, 116 collapses, and 1669 mudslides in total were identified, which mainly distributed in the mountainous areas in the northern part of the corridor. The hazards were divided into five grades: extremely high, high, medium, low, and extremely low and the northern area is highly dangerous. The vulnerability assessment was carried out with traffic, economy, and population as indicators, and then the risk assessment results were comprehensively obtained. In general, the risk is higher in the northern part and lower in the southeast. In the future, as the intensity of earthquakes increases, the area of high-susceptibility landslides will gradually increase from 0.01% to 1.4% of the studied area, and these hazards are mainly distributed between the northern segment of Aikenert fault and Kazitaert fault, the northern segment of Miya fault and the central region of Bulunkou fault. According to the trend that rainfall and temperature increase, the susceptibility of debris flows in most river basins has increased. It is recommended to strengthen basic data collection and detailed investigation of key disaster points, and carry out early risk assessment and monitoring and early warning, while formulating emergency plans, which serves the safe construction of major projects along the Belt and Road.