王安建,高芯蕊.中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2020,35(3):338-344.
中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望
China's Energy and Important Mineral Resources Demand Perspective
中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望
China's Energy and Important Mineral Resources Demand Perspective
作者
王安建
中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心 北京 100037
WANG Anjian
Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
高芯蕊
中国地质博物馆 北京 100034
GAO Xinrui
The Geological Museum of China, Beijing 100034, China
中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心 北京 100037
WANG Anjian
Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
高芯蕊
中国地质博物馆 北京 100034
GAO Xinrui
The Geological Museum of China, Beijing 100034, China
中文关键词
能源资源;矿产资源;消费历史;增长极限;需求展望
英文关键词
energy resources;mineral resource;consumption history;limits to growth;demand outlook
中文摘要
在总结70年来我国能源与重要矿产资源消费历史的基础上，阐述了能源和重要矿产资源消费支撑经济社会发展机理和增长的极限理论，强调人均能源和矿产资源消费量是一个国家经济发展水平的标识。展望未来15年我国能源和重要矿产资源需求：重要大宗矿产资源消费将在2025年前陆续到达峰值；一次能源消费将在2030年前后到达拐点，战略性关键矿产资源消费将迎来快速增长期； 2035年前，中国作为全球能源和重要矿产资源第一消费大国、生产大国和贸易大国的地位和态势将难以改变，需积极应对各种可能的挑战。
英文摘要
This paper summarizes the history of energy and important mineral resources consumption in China in the past 70 years, expounds the mechanism of energy and important mineral resources consumption supporting economic and social development and the theory of "limit of growth", and forecasts China's demand for energy and important mineral resources in the next 15 years. In this paper, it is points out that the consumption of mineral resources will reach the peak around 2025, and that primary energy consumption will reach turning point around 2030, the consumption of critical mineral resources will enter a period of rapid growth. Before 2035, China's status and situation as the world's largest consumer, producer, and trade country of energy and important mineral resources will not be able to change, and it is necessary to actively respond to various possible challenges.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20200107001
作者简介
王安建 中国地质调查局/中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心首席科学家、教授、博士生导师。中国环境协会常务理事,国际地科联为后代寻找资源计划(RFG)新行动战略执行委员会委员。长期从事早前寒武纪地质学、经济地质学(矿床学)、区域成矿学、资源经济学方面的研究与教学工作。先后主持和负责国家"973"计划、科学技术部科技攻关及科技支撑计划课题,以及国家基础性工作、国土资源大调查、中国工程院、财政部、国家发展和改革委员会、全国人大等研究项目30余项;主持中国矿产资源国情调查工程和我国新一轮矿产资源保障程度论证专项。出版专著 4 部,在国内外学术刊物发表论文 200余篇,主持出版系列和专题战略研究报告 120 余部。
E-mail:ajwang@cags.ac.cn
WANG Anjian Professor, Doctoral Supervisor, Chief Scientist of Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Center of China Geological Survey cum. Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Executive Director of China Environmental Association, and member of the New Action Strategy Implementation Committee (NASIC) of the International Geosciences Association's Resourcing Future Generation (RFG). He has long been engaged in research and teaching in early Cambrian geology, economic geology (mineral science), regional metallurgy, and resource economics. He has presided over and was responsible for more than 30 projects including the National 973 Program, the Science and Technology Support Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology, major survey of land and resources, program of Chinese Academy of Engineering, program of the Ministry of Finance, program of the National Development and Reform Commission, and program of the National People's Congress. He hosted China's national survey of mineral resources and China's new round of demonstrative projects for the guarantee of mineral resources. He has published four monographs, published more than 200 papers in academic journals at home and abroad, and hosted more than 120 series and special strategic research reports.
E-mail:ajwang@cags.ac.cn
E-mail:ajwang@cags.ac.cn
WANG Anjian Professor, Doctoral Supervisor, Chief Scientist of Global Mineral Resources Strategy Research Center of China Geological Survey cum. Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Executive Director of China Environmental Association, and member of the New Action Strategy Implementation Committee (NASIC) of the International Geosciences Association's Resourcing Future Generation (RFG). He has long been engaged in research and teaching in early Cambrian geology, economic geology (mineral science), regional metallurgy, and resource economics. He has presided over and was responsible for more than 30 projects including the National 973 Program, the Science and Technology Support Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology, major survey of land and resources, program of Chinese Academy of Engineering, program of the Ministry of Finance, program of the National Development and Reform Commission, and program of the National People's Congress. He hosted China's national survey of mineral resources and China's new round of demonstrative projects for the guarantee of mineral resources. He has published four monographs, published more than 200 papers in academic journals at home and abroad, and hosted more than 120 series and special strategic research reports.
E-mail:ajwang@cags.ac.cn
