崔鹏,郭晓军,姜天海,张国涛,靳文.“亚洲水塔”变化的灾害效应与减灾对策[J].中国科学院院刊,2019,34(11):1313-1321.
“亚洲水塔”变化的灾害效应与减灾对策
Disaster Effect Induced by Asian Water Tower Change and Mitigation Strategies
“亚洲水塔”变化的灾害效应与减灾对策
Disaster Effect Induced by Asian Water Tower Change and Mitigation Strategies
作者
崔鹏
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所/中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041;中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越中心 北京 100101
CUI Peng
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
郭晓军
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所/中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041;中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越中心 北京 100101
GUO Xiaojun
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
姜天海
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所/中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041
JIANG Tianhai
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
张国涛
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所/中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041;中国科学院大学 北京 100049
ZHANG Guotao
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
靳文
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所/中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041;中国科学院大学 北京 100049
JIN Wen
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所/中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041;中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越中心 北京 100101
CUI Peng
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
郭晓军
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所/中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041;中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越中心 北京 100101
GUO Xiaojun
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
姜天海
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所/中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041
JIANG Tianhai
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
张国涛
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所/中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041;中国科学院大学 北京 100049
ZHANG Guotao
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
靳文
中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所/中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都 610041;中国科学院大学 北京 100049
JIN Wen
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
中文关键词
亚洲水塔;自然灾害;灾害特征;灾害风险;气候变化
英文关键词
Asian Water Tower;natural hazards;hazard characteristics;disaster risk;climate change
中文摘要
青藏高原及周边地区被誉为"亚洲水塔"，其自然环境复杂，气候差异显著，地貌类型多样，冰川发育，地壳隆升和河流下切作用强烈，导致滑坡、泥石流、洪水、冰崩雪崩、冰湖溃决等山地灾害发育。灾害呈现出突发性强、危害范围广、破坏严重、链式效应明显等特点，且沿构造断裂带、高山深切峡谷集中分布，受水平和垂直地带性气候条件和局地水热条件控制，不同海拔区的灾害类型、诱发因素和对气候变化的响应有所差异。气候变暖导致的温度升高和降雨增多对灾害发生的水源、物源、能量和条件组合都有所影响，导致灾害的孕灾环境变得易于成灾。未来全球气候变暖将加剧灾害的危险性，而灾害风险也会随着人口和经济体量的增加而升高。目前，还缺乏系统的基础数据和对"亚洲水塔"变化下灾害发生机制的深入认识，从而难以准确预测未来气候变化下的灾害风险，提出有针对性的风险防控对策。为了有效应对气候变化导致的灾害风险，应针对性地进行综合灾害考察，利用高新技术系统获取第一手灾害数据，建立灾害数据库，深化对孕灾环境、形成机理和灾变机制的认识，研究灾害对气候变化的响应规律，预测气候变化条件下灾害的发展趋势，研发针对特大灾害的监测和防控技术，建立多国协调的灾害防控信息共享和减灾协同机制，提高应对灾害风险的能力。
英文摘要
Tibetan Plateau, known as the "Asian Water Tower", has complex natural environment, significant climate differences, diverse landforms, developed glaciers, and strong crustal uplift and river undercut. It is highly prone to natural hazards, such as debris flow, flash flood, and glacial lakes outburst, which often happen suddenly, widely, causing serious damages and often with chained effects. They are mainly distributed along the fault zones and deep-incised valleys, and controlled by climatic and local hydrothermal conditions of horizontal and vertical zonality. Besides, the types of hazards, predisposing factors, and responses to climate change at different altitudes are different. Temperature and precipitation rising induced by global warming have influence on water source, materials, energy, and conditions combination, leading to more vulnerable hazard inducing environment. Global warming is inevitably leading to increased disaster risk, which will increase as population and economic volume goes up. At present, major problems in disaster risk reduction research and practices in the Tibet Plateau are lack of systematic basic data and insufficient understanding of formation mechanism. Therefore, it cannot precisely predict disaster risk under climate change or propose appropriate risk control strategies. In order to effectively deal with the increased disaster risks induced by climate change, it is of necessity to conduct comprehensive disaster investigations, utilize cutting-edge technologies to acquire first-hand disaster data, establish disaster database, improve understanding of hazard-inducing environment, formation, and evolution mechanism, understand response rules of disasters towards climate change, predict disaster development trend under climate change, develop monitoring and prevention technologies for catastrophic disasters, establish multi-national disaster risk reduction cooperation mechanisms, and improve abilities to cope with disaster risk.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2019.11.014
作者简介
崔鹏 中国科学院院士,中国科学院\水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所研究员,国际灾害风险综合研究计划(IRDR)科学委员会委员,中国-巴基斯坦地球科学研究中心中方主任。长期从事以泥石流为主的山地灾害研究,在泥石流形成机理、运动规律、成灾机制、风险评估、灾害防治方面取得系统性理论认识和减灾技术进展,系统认识了地震滑坡、堰塞湖等地震次生灾害的活动规律和形成机理,研发了风险防控关键技术;把减灾理论和技术用于汶川地震、舟曲特大山洪泥石流、委内瑞拉特大泥石流、尼泊尔地震、巴基斯坦堰塞湖等国内外重大减灾中,产生良好成效。
E-mail:pengcui@imde.ac.cn
CUI Peng Member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS),Science Committee Member of IRDR of ISC/UNDRR,CoDirector General of China-Pakistan Joint Research Center of Earth Sciences.He has been long engaged in mountain hazards research with a focus on debris flow.He has obtained acknowledged achievements in understanding debris-flow formation mechanism,motion law,risk assessment,disaster risk reduction and mitigation techniques;systematically understood the mechanism and rules of seismic secondary disasters such as earthquake-induced landslide and dammed lake,and developed a series of risk reduction technologies.He has also been long devoted to apply disaster knowledge and techniques in major disasters at home and abroad.The mitigation techniques have been successfully applied to the mega debris-flow event in Venezuela and Zhouqu in China,earthquakes in Nepal and Wenchuan in China,large dammed lake and geo-hazards along the Karakoram Highway in Pakistan.
E-mail:pengcui@imde.ac.cn
E-mail:pengcui@imde.ac.cn
CUI Peng Member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS),Science Committee Member of IRDR of ISC/UNDRR,CoDirector General of China-Pakistan Joint Research Center of Earth Sciences.He has been long engaged in mountain hazards research with a focus on debris flow.He has obtained acknowledged achievements in understanding debris-flow formation mechanism,motion law,risk assessment,disaster risk reduction and mitigation techniques;systematically understood the mechanism and rules of seismic secondary disasters such as earthquake-induced landslide and dammed lake,and developed a series of risk reduction technologies.He has also been long devoted to apply disaster knowledge and techniques in major disasters at home and abroad.The mitigation techniques have been successfully applied to the mega debris-flow event in Venezuela and Zhouqu in China,earthquakes in Nepal and Wenchuan in China,large dammed lake and geo-hazards along the Karakoram Highway in Pakistan.
E-mail:pengcui@imde.ac.cn
