中国科学院预测科学研究中心.2019年中国经济核心指标预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2019,34(1):3-9.

2019年中国经济核心指标预测

Forecasting China's Major Economic Indexes for 2019
作者
中国科学院预测科学研究中心
中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190
Center for Forecasting Science
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
中文关键词
         经济增长;物价;投资;消费;进出口;预测
英文关键词
        economic growth;price indexes;investment;consumption;foreign trade;forecasting
中文摘要
        2018年,我国经济呈现平稳下滑的态势,预计全年国内生产总值(GDP)增长率约为6.6%,比2017年下降0.3个百分点。物价走势整体平稳,呈现居民消费价格指数(CPI)温和回升、工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)和工业生产者购进价格指数(PPIRM)涨幅回落的态势。预计2019年我国经济将呈现"前降后稳,稳中有进"的态势,全年GDP增速约为6.3%左右。物价将继续保持温和上涨的态势,2019年全年CPI涨幅为2.0%左右。三大需求中,预计2019年我国进出口总额仍将继续保持稳定增长,但增速较2018年略有下降,其中进口增速略高于出口增速。以美元计价,预计2019年进出口总额增长7.9%左右,其中出口同比增长约6.6%,进口同比增长约9.4%。消费将保持平稳增长,预计2019年社会消费品零售总额同比增速约为8.5%。投资增速将略有回升,预计2019年固定资产投资增速在6%左右。
英文摘要
        China's GDP growth rate showed a steady slowdown quarter by quarter in 2018, it is expected to reach about 6.6% annually, 0.3 percentages points lower year on year. Prices kept stable across 2018, of which CPI showed a moderate rise, while PPI and PPIRM declined in growth rate. GDP growth is projected to slow modestly in 2019, with a slight decline from the first to the second quarter, but turn to upward in the third and fourth quarters. The annual GDP growth rate is projected to be about 6.3%. Price continues to maintain the moderate upward trend, the annual CPI is expected to increase about 2.0%. The import and export will remain robust in growth though with a lower rate over 2018, the total volume of import and export is expected to grow up by about 7.9%, of which exports rise by about 6.6%, imports rise by about 9.4% respectively. The consumption will maintain steady growth in 2019, and the total retail sales growth rate is expected around 8.5%. The growth rate of fixed-asset investment might rise slightly in 2019, it is expected to reach around 6.0%.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2019.01.002
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