黄宝荣,刘宝印,洪志生,王鑫,樊杰.我国生态环境质量拐点综合研判[J].中国科学院院刊,2018,33(10):1072-1082.
我国生态环境质量拐点综合研判
Comprehensive Research and Judgment on China's Eco-environmental Turning Points
我国生态环境质量拐点综合研判
Comprehensive Research and Judgment on China's Eco-environmental Turning Points
作者
黄宝荣
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
HUANG Baorong
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
刘宝印
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
LIU Baoyin
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
洪志生
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
HONG Zhisheng
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
王鑫
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
WANG Xin
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
樊杰
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
FAN Jie
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
HUANG Baorong
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
刘宝印
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
LIU Baoyin
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
洪志生
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
HONG Zhisheng
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
王鑫
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
WANG Xin
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
樊杰
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
FAN Jie
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
中文关键词
生态环境质量;演变;拐点;预测;指标体系
中文摘要
十八届三中全会以来，随着生态环境保护力度的加大，我国生态环境恶化趋势在一定程度上得到了遏制，进而引发了决策者对我国何时达到生态环境质量拐点的疑问。“何时达到拐点”直接关系到面向“百年强国”的生态环境保护战略部署。文章在重新界定生态环境质量拐点内涵的基础上，建立了生态环境质量拐点衡量指标体系和预测分析框架，研判了我国不同领域生态环境质量拐点出现的时机。结果发现，2025年前后，我国基本能够实现以常规监测指标衡量的生态环境质量拐点，但实现公众感知的生态环境质量拐点要到2035年前后，实现考虑新型污染物等新因素的生态环境质量拐点则要到2050年前后。面向“百年强国”的生态环境保护战略，既要做好针对当前面临的突出生态环境问题，打好污染防治和生态保护攻坚战规划，也要做好针对当前难以解决以及未来潜在的新的生态环境风险，前瞻布局，打好污染防治和生态保护持久战准备。在此过程中，除了进一步完善生态文明制度体系外，还要发挥科技在解决我国生态环境“瓶颈”和“难点”中的重要作用。
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2018.10.008
作者简介
黄宝荣 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院副研究员。主要从事生态环境评估与管理以及国家公园体制改革和运营管理评估等研究。主持国家自然科学基金、环保部重大专项、中国科学院战略性先导科技专项、中国科学院STS计划重点项目、国家高端智库试点重大项目等重大决策咨询课题10余项;发表论文50余篇,参编专著5部;参与多项中央政府和国家部委生态保护、环境管理方面的文件、政策建议的研究和起草;获部级奖2项。
E-mail:huangbaorong@casipm.ac.cn
HUANG Baorong Associate Professor at the Institutes of Science and Development in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).His research interests include eco-environmental assessment and management,national park system reform and assessment.He has presided over more than 10 topics from major decision consulting projects,sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,the Major Special Project of Ministry of Environmental Protection,the Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS,the Science and Technology Service Network Initiative of CAS,the Major Project of China Top Think Tanks Pilot,and so on,and has published nearly 50 papers and 5 monographs.His research has contributed toward many of China's current policies and institutional arrangements for ecological protection and environmental management.He also received 2 ministerial level awards.
E-mail:huangbaorong@casipm.ac.cn
樊杰 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院副院长、中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室主任,博士,研究员。1982年毕业于北京大学地理系,长期从事区域发展战略咨询和空间规划研制工作。国家发改委"十三五规划"专家委员会委员、国家审计署资源环境审计工作咨询专家、中国国际工程咨询公司专家委员会顾问。担任"全国主体功能区规划"技术负责人,牵头完成了国务院部署的汶川、玉树、舟曲、芦山、鲁甸灾后重建规划的资源环境承载能力评价任务。目前正在组织开展中央深改任务"全国资源环境承载能力监测预警""省级空间规划试点"等科研项目。发表学术论著200余篇(部)。
E-mail:fanj@igsnrr.ac.cn
FAN Jie Doctor,Professor,graduated from Department of Geography,Peking University in 1982,now serves as Deputy Director of Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS),Director of Centre for Sustainable Development Research,CAS,Member of 13th Five-Year Plan Committee of National Development and Reform Commission,Resources and Environment Audit Expert of National Audit Office,and Advisory Committee Member of China International Engineering Consulting Corporation.He has a long career of regional development strategy consulting and space planning.He is the technical leader of "Major Function Oriented Zoning" project,and leaded the evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity of post-disaster reconstruction of Wenchuan,Yushu,Zhouqu,Lushan,and Ludian deployed by the State Council.He is now working on the projects of "National Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity Monitoring and Early Warning" and "Provincial Spatial Planning Pilot".He has published more than 200 academic papers and monographs.
E-mail:fanj@igsnrr.ac.cn
E-mail:huangbaorong@casipm.ac.cn
HUANG Baorong Associate Professor at the Institutes of Science and Development in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).His research interests include eco-environmental assessment and management,national park system reform and assessment.He has presided over more than 10 topics from major decision consulting projects,sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,the Major Special Project of Ministry of Environmental Protection,the Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS,the Science and Technology Service Network Initiative of CAS,the Major Project of China Top Think Tanks Pilot,and so on,and has published nearly 50 papers and 5 monographs.His research has contributed toward many of China's current policies and institutional arrangements for ecological protection and environmental management.He also received 2 ministerial level awards.
E-mail:huangbaorong@casipm.ac.cn
樊杰 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院副院长、中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室主任,博士,研究员。1982年毕业于北京大学地理系,长期从事区域发展战略咨询和空间规划研制工作。国家发改委"十三五规划"专家委员会委员、国家审计署资源环境审计工作咨询专家、中国国际工程咨询公司专家委员会顾问。担任"全国主体功能区规划"技术负责人,牵头完成了国务院部署的汶川、玉树、舟曲、芦山、鲁甸灾后重建规划的资源环境承载能力评价任务。目前正在组织开展中央深改任务"全国资源环境承载能力监测预警""省级空间规划试点"等科研项目。发表学术论著200余篇(部)。
E-mail:fanj@igsnrr.ac.cn
FAN Jie Doctor,Professor,graduated from Department of Geography,Peking University in 1982,now serves as Deputy Director of Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS),Director of Centre for Sustainable Development Research,CAS,Member of 13th Five-Year Plan Committee of National Development and Reform Commission,Resources and Environment Audit Expert of National Audit Office,and Advisory Committee Member of China International Engineering Consulting Corporation.He has a long career of regional development strategy consulting and space planning.He is the technical leader of "Major Function Oriented Zoning" project,and leaded the evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity of post-disaster reconstruction of Wenchuan,Yushu,Zhouqu,Lushan,and Ludian deployed by the State Council.He is now working on the projects of "National Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity Monitoring and Early Warning" and "Provincial Spatial Planning Pilot".He has published more than 200 academic papers and monographs.
E-mail:fanj@igsnrr.ac.cn
