马海涛,孙湛.“丝绸之路经济带”中亚石油资源开发对中国的保障程度与风险防控建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2018,33(6):594-600.

“丝绸之路经济带”中亚石油资源开发对中国的保障程度与风险防控建议

Protection Level and Risk Prevention of Oil Resources Development in Central Asia for China

马海涛
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
MA Haitao
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
孙湛
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
SUN Zhan
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

         石油资源;中亚;保障程度;投资风险;防控措施

        oil resources;Central Asia;degree of guarantee;investment risk;prevention and control measures

        中亚地区石油资源预测储量巨大，在世界能源地缘格局中具有重要战略地位，对中国推进石油进口多元化战略和扩大陆上管道石油进口具有重要作用。文章分析了中亚地区石油资源对中国的保障程度，发现虽然中国对中亚地区石油的投资力度在不断加大，但中亚地区石油对中国石油进口的保障率却极低。通过构建跨国石油投资的风险评价指标体系，运用模糊综合评价模型，对中亚地区石油投资的风险进行了定量评价，发现政策法规风险属于高风险，经济风险、社会文化风险和政治风险属于一般风险，基础设施风险属于低风险，其中矿业权设置、东道国对经营的干预程度、民族文化宗教差异等7个指标具有相当高的高风险发生概率。未来对中亚地区的石油投资合作，既要依据风险评估结果科学合理规避风险，又要寻求破解之道，选择互利共赢的合作模式，确保在中亚地区石油资源开发领域中的优势地位。

        The reserve of oil resources in Central Asia is huge, and it has an important strategic position in the world's energy geopolitical landscape. It plays an important role in China's promotion of a diversified oil import strategy and expansion of oil imports from land pipelines. The article analyzes the degree of protection of China's oil resources and finds that although China's investment in Central Asia's oil has kept increasing, the guarantee level of Central Asian oil for China's oil imports has been extremely low. On this basis, five risk factors and 18 risk indicators such as politics, policies and regulations, economics, social culture, and infrastructure were selected to construct a multinational oil investment risk assessment index system. Inviting authoritative experts in the field to score points and applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to quantitatively evaluate the risks of oil investment in Central Asia. It is found that:(1) the risks of policies and regulations are high risks; (2) the economic risks, socio-cultural risks and political risks are general risks; (3) the infrastructure risk is low risk. Among all the risk indicators, seven indicators, such as the degree of difficulty in obtaining mining rights, the degree of intervention by the host country, and ethnic cultural and religious differences, have very high probability of occurrence of high risks. In the future, China's oil investment cooperation with Central Asia must not only scientifically and reasonably avoid risks based on the results of risk assessment, but also seek solutions. We should choose a mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation model to ensure our advantageous position in the development of oil resources in Central Asia.