方创琳,毛汉英,鲍超,马海涛,杨宇.“丝绸之路经济带”中亚能源合作开发对我国能源安全的保障风险及防控建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2018,33(6):554-562.

“丝绸之路经济带”中亚能源合作开发对我国能源安全的保障风险及防控建议

Risk and Prevention Suggestions of China's Energy Security in Energy Cooperation Development with Central Asia in Silk Road Economic Belt

方创琳
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
FANG Chuanglin
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
毛汉英
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
MAO Hanying
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
鲍超
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
BAO Chao
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
马海涛
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
MA Haitao
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
杨宇
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
YANG Yu
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

         战略能源;保障程度;保障风险;防控对策;中亚地区

        strategic energy;security degree;security risk;prevention and control countermeasures;Central Asia

        中亚地区是“丝绸之路经济带”建设的战略枢纽地段、世界战略能源富集区和超级大国争夺及政治博弈的重点地区之一，也是我国战略能源优先保障的最近基地。中亚战略能源（石油、天然气和天然铀）开发利用表现为储量大、产量小、出口量大、自消量小的“两大两小”特点，这些能源的合作开发利用对中国的保障程度有大有小。研究表明，预计到2030年中国石油、天然气、天然铀的对外依存度将分别高达80%、55%和70%，而同期中亚地区石油、天然气和天然铀出口对中国的保障程度分别为7.9%、40.7%和65%左右。受中亚地区政治、经济、政策、法律、社会文化等因素综合影响，中国与中亚地区合作开发利用战略能源面临的法律、经济、社会、政治、基础设施风险不可低估。其中，法律风险属于高风险，经济风险属于较高风险，社会风险和政治风险属于一般风险。中国与中亚合作开发战略能源一定要时刻防范风险，从化解风险、增进合作、互利共赢的角度，明确政府角色，保证政策沟通，建立副总理级战略能源开发协调委员会；发挥地缘区位优势，设立中国-中亚能源自由贸易区；完善基础设施，实现互联互通，加强中亚能源开发战略运输通道建设；建立能源战略储备制度，建立国家战略能源联合储备体系；加强人文合作，促进民心相通，降低战略能源合作风险。

        The Central Asia is the strategic hubs for the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt, the enrichment zone for strategic energy resources, and one of the key areas for superpower competition and political game. It is also the nearest base for China's strategic energy priority protection. The development and utilization of strategic energy resources (oil, natural gas, and uranium) in Central Asia are characterized by "two large and two small" features, which means large reserves, small volumes, large volume of exports, and small volume of self-consumption. The security degree of the cooperative development and utilization of these energy resources for China varies greatly. Research shows that China's external dependence of oil, natural gas, and uranium deposits are estimated to reach 80%, 55%, and 70% in 2030, respectively, which the exports of the Central Asia's oil, natural gas, and uranium deposits to China are 7.9%, 40.7%, and about 65% in the same period, respectively. Due to the combined influence of politics, economy, policies, laws, and socio-culture in Central Asia, the legal, economic, social, political, and infrastructural risks facing China's and Central Asia's cooperation in the development and utilization of strategic energy resources cannot be underestimated. Among them, the legal risk belongs to the highest risk, the economic risk belongs to the higher risk, while the social risk and the political risk belong to the general risk. China's cooperation with Central Asia to develop strategic energy resources must always guard against risks. Firstly, from the perspective of defusing risks, enhancing cooperation, and achieving mutual benefits, the role of the government needs to be clearly defined and policy communication needs to be guaranteed, while a strategic energy development coordinating committee at the Deputy Prime Minister level is also necessary to be established. Secondly, promote the establishment of China-Central Asia Energy Free Trade Zone and take the advantage of geographical location. Thirdly, strengthen the construction of a strategic transport corridor for energy development between China and Central Asia through the improvement of infrastructure. Fourthly, establish a strategic reserve system for energy resources, and establish a national strategic energy joint reserve system. Last but not least, strengthen humanistic cooperation and promote the people connected to reduce the risk of strategic energy resources cooperation.