段宏波,汪寿阳.减缓与适应:中国应对气候变化的成本收益分析[J].中国科学院院刊,2018,33(3):284-290.
减缓与适应:中国应对气候变化的成本收益分析
Mitigation and Adaptation: Cost-benefit Analysis on Copping with Climate Change in China
减缓与适应:中国应对气候变化的成本收益分析
Mitigation and Adaptation: Cost-benefit Analysis on Copping with Climate Change in China
作者
段宏波
中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190
DUAN Hongbo
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
汪寿阳
中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190
WANG Shouyang
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190
DUAN Hongbo
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
汪寿阳
中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190
WANG Shouyang
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
中文关键词
单边排放控制;减排与适应;能源-经济-环境(3E)系统集成模型;成本-收益分析;政策设计
英文关键词
unilateral emission control;mitigation and adaptation;3E-integrated model;cost-benefit analysis;policy design
中文摘要
潜在的气候损害性是全球气候变暖的内禀特征，同时也是减排应对的根本目的。积极的减排行动一方面可以缓解可能的气候变化损害，带来环境正效益，另一方面也会引起相应的宏观经济成本。从成本-收益角度看，中国单边减排行动的经济性如何，适应在改善这一经济可行性方面又扮演着怎样的角色?这些问题的研究在气候变化形势日趋严峻且各国共同减排协议始终难以达成的背景下尤其重要。基于中国能源-经济-环境（3E）系统集成模型的成本-收益分析结果显示：中国单独排放控制行动的温控贡献十分有限，且付出的经济成本远大于其带来的气候损失对冲收益；提高气候适应能力是改善单独减排行动经济性的重要途径，且相比之下，适应在减少气候变化损失方面的效果更为显著。
英文摘要
Response to possible damage risk associated with climate change is the main task of emission control actions, which could effectively hedge against climate-related damage to some extent, while bring macro economic costs accordingly. Then, how is the economics of China's unilateral emission control actions, and what is the role of adaptation? These are urgent problems to be addressed, especially when the climate change situation becomes increasingly serious and global mitigation cooperation gets difficult to reach. Our cost-benefit analysis results based on energy-economy-environment integrated (3E-integrated) model reveal that China's unilateral emission controls contribute a little to constrain global temperature-rise, and the action cost is greatly larger than the avoided climate damage; besides, adaptation plays a formidable role in improving the economic feasibility of China's unilateral emission controls.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2018.03.008
作者简介
段宏波 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院副教授。主要研究方向:能源与环境经济管理、3E系统集成建模与能源技术扩散。已在The Energy Journal,Energy Economics,Environmental Modeling&Assessment,Technological Forecasting&Social Change以及《管理科学学报》《系统工程理论与实践》等国内外核心期刊上发表多篇文章。
E-mail:hbduan@ucas.ac.cn
DUAN Hongbo Assistant Professor in School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS),his interests include energy and environmental economics management,3E-integrated modeling,and energy innovation diffusion.He has published quite a lot peer-reviewed papers in leading journals.
E-mail:hbduan@ucas.ac.cn
汪寿阳 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院院长,博士生导师,发展中国家科学院院士、国际系统与控制科学院院士、中科院"百人计划"入选者、国家杰出青年基金获得者、教育部"长江计划"特聘教授,兼任中国系统工程学会理事长等。研究领域:经济预测与分析、能源经济管理、政策分析等。
E-mail:sywang@amss.ac.cn
WANG Shouyang Dean of School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS),Ph.D.Supervisor,Distinguished Professor of Yangtze River Project,and winner of the National Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars.He is a fellow of the World Academy of Sciences for the advancement of science in developing countries,Academician of International Academy of Systems and Cybernetics,and the President of China Society of Systems Engineering.His research areas include economic analysis and forecasting,energy economics management,and policy studies.
E-mail:sywang@amss.ac.cn
E-mail:hbduan@ucas.ac.cn
DUAN Hongbo Assistant Professor in School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS),his interests include energy and environmental economics management,3E-integrated modeling,and energy innovation diffusion.He has published quite a lot peer-reviewed papers in leading journals.
E-mail:hbduan@ucas.ac.cn
汪寿阳 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院院长,博士生导师,发展中国家科学院院士、国际系统与控制科学院院士、中科院"百人计划"入选者、国家杰出青年基金获得者、教育部"长江计划"特聘教授,兼任中国系统工程学会理事长等。研究领域:经济预测与分析、能源经济管理、政策分析等。
E-mail:sywang@amss.ac.cn
WANG Shouyang Dean of School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS),Ph.D.Supervisor,Distinguished Professor of Yangtze River Project,and winner of the National Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars.He is a fellow of the World Academy of Sciences for the advancement of science in developing countries,Academician of International Academy of Systems and Cybernetics,and the President of China Society of Systems Engineering.His research areas include economic analysis and forecasting,energy economics management,and policy studies.
E-mail:sywang@amss.ac.cn
