周新,冯天天,徐明.基于网络系统的结构分析和统计学方法构建中国可持续发展目标的关键目标和核心指标[J].中国科学院院刊,2018,33(1):20-29.
基于网络系统的结构分析和统计学方法构建中国可持续发展目标的关键目标和核心指标
Determination of Strategic Targets and Core Indicators for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Integration in China Based on SDG Interlinkages Analysis and Statistical Method
基于网络系统的结构分析和统计学方法构建中国可持续发展目标的关键目标和核心指标
Determination of Strategic Targets and Core Indicators for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Integration in China Based on SDG Interlinkages Analysis and Statistical Method
作者
周新
日本全球环境战略研究所 神奈川 240-0115
ZHOU Xin
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Kanagawa 240-0115, Japan
冯天天
中国地质大学 人文经管学院 北京 100083
FENG Tiantian
School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
徐明
美国密西根大学 安阿伯 MI 48109
XU Ming
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
日本全球环境战略研究所 神奈川 240-0115
ZHOU Xin
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Kanagawa 240-0115, Japan
冯天天
中国地质大学 人文经管学院 北京 100083
FENG Tiantian
School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
徐明
美国密西根大学 安阿伯 MI 48109
XU Ming
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
中文关键词
可持续发展目标;可持续发展目标的关联系统;可持续发展目标的核心指标;可持续发展综合决策;社会网络分析;主成分分析
英文关键词
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs);SDG interlinkages;SDG core indicators;SDG integration;Social Network Analysis;Principal Component Analysis
中文摘要
2015年联合国通过了《2030年可持续发展议程》，确立了17项全球可持续发展总体目标和169项具体目标，同时制定了232项指标监测可持续发展进程。可持续发展目标（SDGs）之间以及指标之间相互关联，构成了一个不可分割的复杂系统。文章用51个指标和中国的时序列数据，对相应的108个目标构成的关联网络进行定量化评价。通过社会网络分析和主成分分析，识别出17个关键目标和17项核心指标。17个核心指标可以解释51项指标95%以上的信息量。用此方法构建的核心指标既可大幅减少统计工作量，又可以达到全面监测可持续发展进程的目的。建议在实施《中国落实2030年可持续发展议程国别方案》的初级阶段将17个关键目标列为优先领域，重点突破。同时，通过强化相关目标的正协同效应和防范规避负协同效应，全面提升该落实方案的实施效果。
英文摘要
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by the United Nations in 2015, set 17 global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with 169 targets. 232 indicators were proposed as the global framework for monitoring the progress made in achieving SDGs. SDG targets and their corresponding indicators interact with each other forming an indivisible system. This study examined the interlinkages between SDG targets in China and used 51 indicators and relevant time-series data mapping with 108 SDG targets to quantify the network of interlinkages between SDG targets. Using Social Network Analysis and Principal Component Analysis, we identified 17 strategic targets and 17 core indicators. The core indicators can explain more than 95% of the variance of 51 indicators. Using core indicators can reduce statistical burden while satisfying the needs for SDG monitoring. Based on the dashboard indicating the synergies and trade-offs between 17 strategic targets and other targets, this paper recommended that China should set 17 strategic targets as priority areas and optimize the use of limited financial resources by maximizing the synergies and minimizing the trade-offs.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2018.01.003
作者简介
周新 全球环境战略研究所战略和定量化研究中心主任,高级研究员。负责环境和可持续发展政策的建模和定量化分析。主要研究领域包括:可持续发展目标的关联系统网络分析,可持续发展目标的指标体系,气候变化政策的经济和就业影响的定量评价,水-能源-粮食相关影响的综合评价,绿色投资和绿色就业的经济环境影响评价,环境与贸易,以及能源系统模拟工具、可持续发展目标的关联系统网络可视化互联网工具等决策辅助工具的研发。E-mail:zhou@iges.or.jp
ZHOU Xin Research Leader of Strategic and Quantitative Analysis Centre (QAC) and Principal Policy Researcher at the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES),a non-for-profit think tank in Japan aiming for achieving sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific region.Her background includes more than 20 years of experience in the environmental and policy analysis field.In her current role,she is leading an extensive array of research and analysis projects including Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) interlinkages and indicators,NDC policy assessment and labor market implications,integrated assessment of water-energy-food,green investment and green jobs assessment,trade and the environment,and development of decision making support tools such as energy systems scenario simulation tool and SDG Interlinkages and Data Visualisation Web Tool.E-mail:zhou@iges.or.jp
ZHOU Xin Research Leader of Strategic and Quantitative Analysis Centre (QAC) and Principal Policy Researcher at the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES),a non-for-profit think tank in Japan aiming for achieving sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific region.Her background includes more than 20 years of experience in the environmental and policy analysis field.In her current role,she is leading an extensive array of research and analysis projects including Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) interlinkages and indicators,NDC policy assessment and labor market implications,integrated assessment of water-energy-food,green investment and green jobs assessment,trade and the environment,and development of decision making support tools such as energy systems scenario simulation tool and SDG Interlinkages and Data Visualisation Web Tool.E-mail:zhou@iges.or.jp
