谭显春,顾佰和,王毅.气候变化对我国中长期发展的影响分析及对策建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(9):1029-1035.
气候变化对我国中长期发展的影响分析及对策建议
Impact Analysis and Countermeasures for Climate Change on Long-term Development of China
气候变化对我国中长期发展的影响分析及对策建议
Impact Analysis and Countermeasures for Climate Change on Long-term Development of China
作者
谭显春
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
Tan Xianchun
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
顾佰和
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
Gu Baihe
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
王毅
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
Wang Yi
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
Tan Xianchun
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
顾佰和
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
Gu Baihe
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
王毅
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190
Wang Yi
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
中文关键词
气候变化;巴黎协定;一带一路;绿色转型
英文关键词
climate change;the Paris Agreement;Belt and Road Initiative;green transformation
中文摘要
全球变暖会对人类和生态系统造成严重、普遍和不可逆转的影响。从《京都议定书》到《巴黎协定》，关于碳减排的多方会谈一直在艰难中前行。2017年6月初，美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》，给不容乐观的全球减排前景又添加了一层阴影。我国作为全球最大的发展中国家，人口众多，地形地貌复杂多样，极易遭受气候变化不利影响，气候变暖带来的社会系统风险不断增加。当前，我国处于国内经济转型和践行“一带一路”倡议的重大历史时期，应当从维护国家安全的高度看待应对气候变化问题，充分发挥我国在全球气候治理体系中的领导力。这既是我国广泛参与全球治理、构建人类命运共同体的责任担当，更是实现可持续发展，推动绿色低碳转型，提高我国综合竞争力的内在要求。
英文摘要
Global warming is causing serious, universal, and irreversible impacts to humans and ecosystems. From the Kyoto Protocol to the Paris Agreement, multilateral conference about carbon emission reduction has been through an arduous way. In early June of 2017, the United States announced their retreat from the Paris Agreement, which will add a negative shadow to the gloomy prospect of global emissions. As the world's largest developing country, China is much more vulnerable to the adverse effects derived from climate change because of its large population, complex and varied topography. Climate warming will increase the risk in social system to a large degree. Meanwhile, at present, China is in its important historical period of domestic economy transformation and of realizing "Belt and Road Initiative", which requires us to view the issue of climate change at the height of defending the national security, and also requires us to give full play to the leadership in the global climate governance system. This issue is not only relevant to our wide participation in global governance and our responsibility of building the community of human destiny, but also is beneficial for the inherent requirements to realize sustainable development, to promote green low carbon transformation, and to improve the comprehensive competitiveness of China.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2017.09.013
作者简介
谭显春, 中科院科技战略咨询院研究员、博导。主要从事气候变化与绿色低碳发展战略、政策研究。开展了绿色低碳发展规划、技术评估和政策相关理论、方法等研究,开发了符合中国国情的"中国政策规划分析系统",为改革方案提供第三方评估等,成为中央深改组、国务院常务会议审议文件的支撑性文件,如《"十三五"控制温室气体排放工作方案》;开展中国适应气候变化的政策与行动、中国应对气候变化南南合作战略、中国"一带一路"气候变化战略相关研究。主持了国家自然科学基金、中科院战略性先导专项、国家发改委气候专项等重大决策咨询项目等30余项课题;发表论文近 40 篇;出版专著 2 部;获批示及成果应用证明 11 份;获省部级奖 3 项。E-mail:txc@casipm.ac.cn
Tan Xianchun, Professor of Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Her research interest includes climate change and green low-carbon development strategy, and policy research. At present, she has carried out the research of green lowcarbon development planning, technology assessment and policy related theories and methods, has developed the "China Policy Planning and Analysis System" in line with China's national conditions, and has provided third-party evaluation for the reform program. The works such as 13th Five-Year Plan to Control Greenhouse Gas Emission became the supporting documents of the review files of the leading government group for overall reform, and executive meeting of the State Council. Besides, she also conducted the related research on China's policy and action on Climate Change Adaption, China's South-South Cooperation Strategy concerning coping with the climate change, "Belt and Road initiative" in China climate change strategy. Dr. Tan has presided over more than 30 topics from major decision consulting projects, sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS, climate research fund of the National Development and Reform Commission, and so on, and has published nearly 40 papers and 2 monographs. She has received 11 achievement application certificates which received instructions, and 3 provincial or ministerial level awards. E-mail:txc@casipm.ac.cn
顾佰和, 男,中科院科技战略咨询院助理研究员。主要研究领域包括:绿色低碳政策评估、低碳发展规划、气候治理等。E-mail:gubaihe@casipm.ac.cn
Gu Baihe, Male, an assistant professor at the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASISD). His research interests include green and low carbon policy evaluation, low carbon development planning and climate governance. E-mail:gubaihe@casipm.ac.cn
Tan Xianchun, Professor of Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Her research interest includes climate change and green low-carbon development strategy, and policy research. At present, she has carried out the research of green lowcarbon development planning, technology assessment and policy related theories and methods, has developed the "China Policy Planning and Analysis System" in line with China's national conditions, and has provided third-party evaluation for the reform program. The works such as 13th Five-Year Plan to Control Greenhouse Gas Emission became the supporting documents of the review files of the leading government group for overall reform, and executive meeting of the State Council. Besides, she also conducted the related research on China's policy and action on Climate Change Adaption, China's South-South Cooperation Strategy concerning coping with the climate change, "Belt and Road initiative" in China climate change strategy. Dr. Tan has presided over more than 30 topics from major decision consulting projects, sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS, climate research fund of the National Development and Reform Commission, and so on, and has published nearly 40 papers and 2 monographs. She has received 11 achievement application certificates which received instructions, and 3 provincial or ministerial level awards. E-mail:txc@casipm.ac.cn
顾佰和, 男,中科院科技战略咨询院助理研究员。主要研究领域包括:绿色低碳政策评估、低碳发展规划、气候治理等。E-mail:gubaihe@casipm.ac.cn
Gu Baihe, Male, an assistant professor at the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASISD). His research interests include green and low carbon policy evaluation, low carbon development planning and climate governance. E-mail:gubaihe@casipm.ac.cn
