潘家华.负面冲击 正向效应——美国总统特朗普宣布退出《巴黎协定》的影响分析[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(9):1014-1021.

负面冲击 正向效应——美国总统特朗普宣布退出《巴黎协定》的影响分析

Negative Shock but Positive Effect——Understanding Impact of US Withdrawal from Paris Climate Agreement

潘家华
中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所 北京 100028
Pan Jiahua
Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100028, China

         巴黎协定;气候治理;特朗普;退出;中国的地位

        Paris Agreement;climate governance;Trump;withdrawal;role of China

        准确地说，特朗普退出《巴黎协定》是美国联邦政府的决定，并非涵盖全部美国地方政府和企业。由于《巴黎协定》积极而稳妥的开放和进取属性，个别缔约方的单边行为不足以终止甚至改变“巴黎气候进程”。美国退出《巴黎协定》，并不必然表明美国会退出全球气候治理的领导地位，也不必然意味着世界温室气体排放第一大国、经济体量第二大国的中国可以填补美国退出所产生的空缺。国际社会和美国国内所作出的反应表明，美国退出《巴黎协定》产生的负面冲击，继而带来的却是正向效果。推进“巴黎气候进程”，中国的引领地位不可或缺，但也不可急于求成，只能有限担当，顺势作为。

        More accurately speaking, the withdrawal by the US President Donald Trump from the Paris Climate Agreement represents the position of the US federal government but not necessarily that of the local governments and the majority part of the private sector. However, the concern over the negative impact of the US decision does have its stands. Nevertheless, unilateral withdrawal is unable to terminate or even to hold the implementation of the Paris Agreement, as the framework set the agreement is positive, firm, open, and progressive by nature. The responses from the international community and US domestic sources indicate that the effects are positive from such a negative shock. In the meantime, the US withdrawal does not necessarily mean that the US is to give up its leadership in the climate process, and that China as the number one emitter and second largest economy will take over the role left by the US. To push the Paris process, China has to take a leading role but it is no time to hurry up. The best approach is to take actions when conditions allows as no one can shoulder unlimited responsibilities.