中国科学院院刊-国家科学思想库核心媒体

彭京备,布和朝鲁,郑飞,陈红,郎咸梅,俞越,张庆云,马洁华,林壬萍,李超凡,田宝强,穆松宁,林朝晖,陆日宇,朱江.2017年夏季全国气候趋势展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(4):413-417.

2017年夏季全国气候趋势展望

Seasonal Climate Outlook for the Summer of China 2017

作者

彭京备
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Peng Jingbei
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
布和朝鲁
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Bueh Cholaw
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
郑飞
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Zheng Fei
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
陈红
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Chen Hong
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
郎咸梅
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Lang Xianmei
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
俞越
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Yu Yue
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
张庆云
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Zhang Qingyun
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
马洁华
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Ma Jiehua
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
林壬萍
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Lin Renping
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
李超凡
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Li Chaofan
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
田宝强
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Tian Baoqiang
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
穆松宁
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Mu Songning
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
林朝晖
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Lin Zhaohui
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
陆日宇
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Lu Riyu
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
朱江
中国科学院大气物理研究所北京 100029
Zhu Jiang
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

中文关键词

夏季降水形势;气候预测;登陆台风

英文关键词

summer precipitation anomalies;climate prediction;landing typhoon

中文摘要

2017年春季至夏初，赤道中东太平洋海温将处于中性状态。2017年夏季（6-8月），全国总体降水形势趋于常年，出现大范围洪涝灾害的可能性不大。预计，华南大部、黄淮流域、华北东部、东北南部、东北北部、新疆大部和西藏南部地区降水正常略偏多，其中新疆北部降水偏多2成左右。我国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少。预计2017年登陆台风数接近正常。

英文摘要

The equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the central and east-central Pacific are in aneutral state at present and would keep this state through the coming spring and early summer of 2017, according to the real-time prediction result of the ENSO prediction system of Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP, CAS). According to the seasonal rainfall prediction at IAP, in summer (June to August) of 2017, the overall rainfall situation in China tends to perennial, there is little possibility of a large extent of flooding. A wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of south China, Huang-Huai basin, eastern part of North China, southern and northern parts of Northeast China, most parts of Xinjiang, and southern part of Tibetan Plateau, whereas the other parts of China will experience a drierthan-normal condition during the boreal summer. In this summer, the number of landing typhoons is predicted to be near normal.

DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2017.04.012

作者简介

彭京备,中科院大气物理所国际气候与环境科学中心高级工程师,主要研究方向为短期气候预测和灾害性天气气候机理诊断研究。E-mail:pengjingbei@mail.iap.ac.cn
Peng Jingbei Received B.S.degree from Beijing Meteorological Institute,Beijing,China,and M.S.and Ph.D.degrees from Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAPCAS),Beijing,China,in 2009,respectively.Her current research interests include short-term climate prediction and diagnosis study of the mechanism of disastrous weather.Since 2012,she has been a senior engineer with the International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES),IAPCAS,Beijing,China.E-mail:pengjingbei@mail.iap.ac.cn
布和朝鲁,男,中科院大气物理所国际气候与环境科学中心副主任,研究员。主要从事中高纬度大气动力学和气候变化研究。E-mail:bueh@lasg.iap.ac.cn
Bueh Cholaw Male,Received B.S.degree from Beijing University in 1990,M.S.degree from Nanjing University in 1993,and Ph.D.degree from Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAPCAS) in 1997,respectively.His current research interests include the mid-and high-latitude atmospheric dynamics and climate change.Since 2006,he has been a full professor with IAP CAS.He is currently the deputy director of International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES),IAP CAS.E-mail:bueh@lasg.iap.ac.cn