宋周莺,车姝韵,张薇.我国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易特征研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(4):363-369.

我国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易特征研究

Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Foreign Trade between China and Countries along the Silk Roads

宋周莺
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101
Song Zhouying
Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
车姝韵
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 北京 100049
Che Shuyun
Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
张薇
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 北京 100049
Zhang Wei
Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

         中国;沿线国家;贸易合作;时空特征;贸易潜力

        China;Silk Road countries;trade cooperation;spatial-temporal characteristics;trade potential

        贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的关键内容和核心环节。文章基于对我国与沿线国家贸易合作宏观形势的分析，从贸易规模、贸易联系、贸易平衡、贸易网络等角度综合分析中国与沿线国家的贸易特征，并在此基础上通过模型测算未来中国与沿线各国的贸易增长潜力。研究结果表明：（1）我国与沿线国家贸易增长迅速，贸易联系日趋紧密；2014年以来贸易平衡从逆差转变为顺差。（2）“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易网络可以识别出三个主组团及两个次组团；从我国贸易格局看，东南亚与我国贸易联系最紧密，其次为西亚。（3）我国与沿线国家贸易发展潜力最大的主要是东南亚国家、俄罗斯、印度、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋等。

        ‘Unimpeded trade’ is one of the priorities of cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. It is important to examine the spatial-temporal characteristics of foreign trade between China and Silk Road Countries (SRCs) for promoting economic prosperity and regional cooperation along Silk Roads. Based on review of the macro situation along Silk Road regions, this paper first analyzes spatial-temporal characteristics of trade cooperation between China and SRCs, and then estimates trade potential using in-sample and regression approaches. The finding of this paper are salutary. First, with the rapid growth of foreign trade between China and SRCs, the trade network along Silk Road regions are getting closer and closer; meanwhile, with the increase of China's export to SRCs and SRCs' import from China, the trade balance between China and SRCs has shifted from trade deficit to trade surplus since 2014. Second, we can identify three trade communities and two sub communities in the trade network along Silk Road regions, through community detection algorithm, in which China is the core node of the biggest trade community. As for China, Southeast Asia is the most close trade partner, followed by West Asia; while the trade volume between China and Central Asia is still small. Third, the regression results indicate that, in 2020, the most significant potential trade partners for China are some Southeast Asia countries, such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Russia, India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.