姬强,刘炳越,赵万里,马嫣然,范英.2017年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(2):196-201.
2017年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测
International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2017
2017年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测
International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2017
作者
姬强
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院能源与环境政策研究中心 北京 100190
Ji Qiang
Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
刘炳越
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院能源与环境政策研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学技术大学统计与金融系 合肥 230026
Liu Bingyue
Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Department of Statistics and Finance, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
赵万里
北京航空航天大学经济管理学院 北京 100191
Zhao Wanli
School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
马嫣然
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院能源与环境政策研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学技术大学管理学院 合肥 230026
Ma Yanran
Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
范英
北京航空航天大学经济管理学院 北京 100191
Fan Ying
School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院能源与环境政策研究中心 北京 100190
Ji Qiang
Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
刘炳越
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院能源与环境政策研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学技术大学统计与金融系 合肥 230026
Liu Bingyue
Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Department of Statistics and Finance, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
赵万里
北京航空航天大学经济管理学院 北京 100191
Zhao Wanli
School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
马嫣然
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院能源与环境政策研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学技术大学管理学院 合肥 230026
Ma Yanran
Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
范英
北京航空航天大学经济管理学院 北京 100191
Fan Ying
School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
中文关键词
国际原油市场;油价预测;走势分析
英文关键词
international oil market;oil price forecast;trend analgsis
中文摘要
2017年，OPEC和非OPEC国家减产协议的执行力度将是影响国际石油价格走势的最大变数。国际石油市场供需两侧均面临很大的不确定性，美国页岩油产量的恢复速度、OECD国家石油需求的反弹力度以及新兴经济体对石油需求的拉动作用都将影响石油市场的再平衡状态。除此之外，美国加息的不确定性、市场投机的活跃程度以及地缘政治的“黑天鹅”事件都将增加油价的短期波动性。文章通过自主研发的油价综合分析预测系统预测，2017年国际油价将保持窄幅震荡，Brent年平均油价为56美元/桶，WTI年平均油价为55美元/桶，平均价差保持在1美元/桶左右。
英文摘要
In 2017, the implementation progress of OPEC and non-OPEC production cut agreement will be the biggest uncertainty. Both the supply and demand sides in the international oil market are facing great uncertainty, in which the recovery speed of U.S. shale oil production, the redound degree of OECD countries' oil demand and the new oil consumption growth in emerging economies will affect the balance of the oil market. In addition, the uncertainty of U.S. interest rate hike, the active degree of market speculation and geopolitical Black Swan events will increase the short-term volatility of oil prices. Using our oil price analysis and forecasting synthetic system, we forecast that oil prices will still keep fluctuations at a narrow range in 2017, and the Brent average year price may stand at 56 dollar per barrel and WTI average year price stand at 55 dollar per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI will be narrowed to 1 dollar per barrel.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2017.02.010
作者简介
姬强,中科院科技战略咨询院副研究员。长期从事能源经济学、能源安全战略管理、能源市场量化分析及价格预测的研究工作,在国内外重要学术期刊发表论文50余篇。E-mail:jqwxnjq@163.com
Ji Qiang Associate professor of Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences.His research focuses on energy economics,energy security strategy management,and quantitative analysis and forecast on energy market.He has published over 50 papers in peer reviewed journals.E-mail:jqwxnjq@163.com
范英 女,北京航空航天大学经济管理学院院长,博士生导师。长期从事能源经济学、能源金融、能源环境与气候政策的研究工作,在国内外重要学术期刊发表论文200余篇。获国家杰出青年科学基金,入选中科院"百人计划"。
Fan Ying Female,dean and professor of School of Economics and Management,Beihang University (BUAA),her research and teaching fields include energy-environment-economy system modeling,energy finance,climate change,and energy and environment policy.She has carried out over 50 research projects,published over 200 papers in peer reviewed journals.She won the research grant for distinguished young scientists sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China and Hundred Talents Program sponsored by Chinese Academy of Sciences.E-mail:yfan@casipm.ac.cn
Ji Qiang Associate professor of Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences.His research focuses on energy economics,energy security strategy management,and quantitative analysis and forecast on energy market.He has published over 50 papers in peer reviewed journals.E-mail:jqwxnjq@163.com
范英 女,北京航空航天大学经济管理学院院长,博士生导师。长期从事能源经济学、能源金融、能源环境与气候政策的研究工作,在国内外重要学术期刊发表论文200余篇。获国家杰出青年科学基金,入选中科院"百人计划"。
Fan Ying Female,dean and professor of School of Economics and Management,Beihang University (BUAA),her research and teaching fields include energy-environment-economy system modeling,energy finance,climate change,and energy and environment policy.She has carried out over 50 research projects,published over 200 papers in peer reviewed journals.She won the research grant for distinguished young scientists sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China and Hundred Talents Program sponsored by Chinese Academy of Sciences.E-mail:yfan@casipm.ac.cn
