席雯雯,姬强,范英.国际油气价格动态关系对中国天然气定价机制改革的启示(已在2016年第7期出版)[J].中国科学院院刊,,():.

国际油气价格动态关系对中国天然气定价机制改革的启示(已在2016年第7期出版)
作者
席雯雯 姬强 范英

中文关键词
         国际油气价格动态关系,马尔可夫机制转换协整模型,天然气定价改革
英文关键词
        dynamic relationship of international oil and gas price, Markov regime switching cointegration model, natural gas pricing reform
中文摘要
        文章从国际视角量化分析了国际天然气价格与石油价格之间的动态关系,并针对我国 当前的天然气价格改革现状,对我国天然气市场发展和定价机制的改革方向提出了政策建 议。研究发现,页岩气革命导致了当前国际油气价格呈现“分离”态势,这也是天然气市 场化的必然结果。然而,油气价格之间的弱联动性仍然存在,且在当前国际低能源价格的 态势下,我国应抓住契机,进一步推动天然气价格的市场化改革。
英文摘要
        As energy supply situation becomes tighter and the climate change problem becomes more urgent, many countries vigorously develop and utilize natural gas to ensure the safety of energy supply and reduce carbon emission. China’s natural gas demand has entered into a period of rapid growth, and the natural gas reform with the core of market-oriented pricing has become an important part of China’s energy strategic planning. At present, China’s natural gas price is linked to the alternative energy prices, which is facing a series of problems. The US natural gas market with highest level of marketization has also experienced price control period. In the process of deregulation and forming a competitive market, the evolution of the relationship between oil and gas prices could reflect the changes of natural gas pricing mechanism and its internal causes. According to the quantitative analysis of the relationship between oil and gas prices in North America, we could have a better understanding of the laws of international natural gas prices, and offer inspirations for China’s natural gas pricing reform and market-oriented reform. In this study, with dynamic modeling thoughts, we research on the dynamic changing law between international oil prices and natural gas prices represented by the North America market. We take exogenous factors like speculation, inventory, and weather into consideration, and use state space model and Markov regime switching model to study on the comovement of oil prices and natural gas prices. The results indicate that after the shale gas revolution, the relationship between oil and gas prices of North America presents weakening gradually showing a trend of “decoupling”. There is no long-term cointegration between oil prices and natural gas prices, while there is a dynamic equilibrium with the development of the market. Under the market-oriented pricing mechanism, natural gas market price is easily influenced by many factors like supply and demand, speculation, weather and so on. The international natural gas market is in a special stage, in which the countries with natural gas price controls are gradually carrying out deregulation. Meanwhile, the rapid promotion of LNG increases the liquidity of interregional natural gas trade, and the global natural gas market shows a trend of integration. Under this background, China should accelerate the process of marketization and explore the pricing mechanism which is suitable for the national situation. On the basis of our research results, we put forward several implications for future direction of China’s natural gas market, including: (1) track the price fluctuation laws of international crude oil market, and adjust the natural gas pricing in time; (2) establish natural gas futures, which helps form the price that reflects the changes of domestic supply and demand of natural gas; and (3) open the upstream market, introduce competition mechanisms, and establish a diversified supply system.
作者简介
席雯雯 中国科学技术大学管理学院与中科院科技战略咨询院(筹)联合培养硕士研究生,研究方向:能源经济与天 然气市场。 E-mail: caumathxww@163.com
Xi Wenwen joint training master student of University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) and Institute of Science and Development. Her research focuses on energy economics and natural gas market. E-mail: caumathxww@163.com

范英 女,北京航空航天大学经济管理学院院长,博士生导师。长期从事能源经济学、能源金融、能源环境与气候政 策的研究工作,在国内外重要学术期刊发表论文200余篇。获国家杰出青年科学基金,入选中科院 “百人计划”。 E-mail: yfan@casipm.ac.cn
Fan Ying female, dean and professor of School of Economics and Management, Beihang University (BUAA). Her research and teaching fields include energy-environment-economy system modeling, energy finance, climate change, and energy and environmental policy. She has carried out over 50 research projects, published over 200 papers in peer reviewed journals. She won the research grant for distinguished young scientists sponsored by NSFC and Hundred Talents Program sponsored by CAS. E-mail: yfan@casipm.ac.cn
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