关道明,张志锋,杨正先,索安宁.海洋资源环境承载能力理论与测度方法的探索[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,31(10):1241-1247.

海洋资源环境承载能力理论与测度方法的探索

Research on Measuring Strategy of Carrying Capacity of Marine Resources and Environment

关道明
国家海洋环境监测中心 大连 116023
Guan Daoming
National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, Dalian 116023, China
张志锋
国家海洋环境监测中心 大连 116023
Zhang Zhifeng
National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, Dalian 116023, China
杨正先
国家海洋环境监测中心 大连 116023
Yang Zhengxian
National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, Dalian 116023, China
索安宁
国家海洋环境监测中心 大连 116023
Suo Anning
National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, Dalian 116023, China

         海洋资源环境;承载能力;测度方法;监测预警

        marine resources and environment;carrying capacity;measuring method;monitoring and early warning

        海洋在经济社会发展全局中的战略地位日益凸显，但也面临资源约束趋紧、环境污染严重、生态系统退化的严峻形势，因而建立海洋资源环境承载能力监测预警机制刻不容缓。文章介绍了海洋资源环境承载能力理论与测度方法探索研究的阶段性进展，初步构建了基于“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应”（DPSIR）理论的承载力模型，通过评估海洋资源环境系统进入不可持续过程时的阈值或阈值区间，建立沿海县级行政区海洋资源环境承载能力的指标体系和评估预警方法，并在京津冀海域开展试评估，结果表明海洋生态退化、岸线过度开发、海域环境污染受损、天然渔业资源衰退是影响河北和天津近岸海域资源环境承载能力的四大主要因素。未来应进一步深化海洋资源环境承载能力测度方法研究和建立监测预警机制，科学客观评估测度可持续发展水平，探寻疏解沿海地区承载压力、增强承载能力的有效途径。

        Marine is of key importance for the development of China's economy and society, but encounters resource constraints, serious environmental pollution, and the degradation of ecosystem. Therefore, the establishment of monitoring and early-warning mechanism on the carrying capacity of marine resources and environment is of great urgency. In this work, a DPSIR conceptual model and relevant index system were established, to evaluate the carrying status of regional marine resources and environment on county-level, and to assess whether it is overloaded. The established measuring strategy was applied to the Tianjin and Hebei coastal area, the results revealed that the regional carrying capacity was overloading, and marine ecosystem degradation, coastline over exploration, coastal water pollution, and over fishing were the main influencing factors. More efforts are expected for further development on the comprehensive measuring strategy of carrying capacity of marine resources and environment, and effective ways to relieve anthropogenic pressures and to improve carrying capacity for regional marine ecosystem.