池宏.系统分析在科技战略研究中的作用[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,31(8):936-939.

系统分析在科技战略研究中的作用

System Analysis in Strategy Research of Science and Technology

池宏
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院(筹) 北京 100190
Chi Hong
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

         科技战略;系统性;前瞻性;鲁棒性;系统分析

        words science and technology strategy;systematics;forward-looking;robustness;system analysis

        新形势下的科技战略研究应具备两大视野，一方面要看到国内经济社会发展提出的新要求，另一方面要看到国际科技发展的新态势。这是一项具有系统性、前瞻性和鲁棒性的艰巨任务。科学运用系统分析工具有助于准确判断世界科技发展趋势，把握经济社会发展需求；有助于系统解决科技发展中的突出问题，发挥科技对经济社会系统运行的支撑引领作用；有助于对科技发展战略鲁棒性问题的思考，探究不确定条件下科技布局的瓶颈因素。此外，管理手段的运用能够从组织模式、政策保障、机制建设等方面为科技战略的顺利实施提供支撑。

        Under new situations and circumstances, the strategy research of science and technology should possess two main visions. One is to see the new demands made by the domestic economic and social development, and the other is to see the new trends of world science and technology development. It is a systematic, forward-looking, and robust work. System analysis is expected to help us form a judgement of the trend of scientific development and grasp the requirements of economic and social development. It might also aid in solving difficult problems in reality. Besides, systematic approaches are also helpful in thinking of the robustness and exploring the bottlenecks in scientific strategy layout under uncertainty. In addition, management approaches are needed to bolster the science and technology strategy with the organization establishment, the policy-making, the mechanism design, and so on.