姬强,刘炳越,席雯雯,范英.2016年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2015,30(6):818-823.

2016年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测

International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2016

姬强
中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心 北京 100190
Ji Qiang
Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institute of Policy & Management, CAS, Beijing 100190, China
刘炳越
中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学技术大学统计与金融系 合肥 230026
Liu Bingyue
Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institute of Policy & Management, CAS, Beijing 100190, China;Department of Statistics and Finance, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
席雯雯
中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学技术大学管理学院 合肥 230026
XiWenwen
Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institute of Policy & Management, CAS, Beijing 100190, China;School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
范英
中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心 北京 100190
Fan Ying
Center for Energy & Environment Policy Research, Institute of Policy & Management, CAS, Beijing 100190, China

         石油市场;油价预测

        oil market;oil price forecast

        2016年,OPEC的产量决策将对全球石油供应形势产生重要的影响,也将影响市场对于油价重回上升通道的信心和预期。全球经济形势,特别是OECD国家的复苏进度将成为影响需求增长的关键因素。美元汇率走势、市场投机活动以及地缘政治事件都将成为油价短期波动的不确定因素。文章通过自主研发的油价综合分析预测系统预测,2016年国际油价将继续保持低位震荡,Brent年平均油价为53美元/桶,WTI年平均油价为49美元/桶,平均价差为4美元/桶。影响这一趋势的最大不确定性是OPEC的政策以及OPEC与俄罗斯等产油国之间的博弈。

        OPEC production decisions will have important impacts on the global oil supply situation and also affect the confidence and market expectation for the recovery of upward trend of oil prices in 2016. The recovery progress of the global economy, especially OECD countries will be the key factor in the impact of demand growth. Besides, the changes of US dollar exchange rate, behaviors of market speculation and impacts of geopolitical events will influence the uncertainty of the short-term fluctuations in the oil prices. Using our oil price analysis and forecasting synthetic system, we forecast that oil prices will still keep fluctuations at a low level in 2016, and the Brent average year price may stand at 55 dollar per barrel and WTI average year price stand at 51 dollar per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI will be narrowed to 4 dollar per barrel. The production decision in OPEC and competition for market share among OPEC, Russia and other oil producers will be the largest uncertainty affecting oil price forecasting.