本刊编辑部.2016年中国经济增长形势展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2015,30(6):810-817.

2016年中国经济增长形势展望

Prospect of 2016 China's Economic Growth: Analysis and Forecast

本刊编辑部
北京 100190

Division of Macroeconomic Research, Center of Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China

         经济增长;预测;减缓

        economic growth;forecast;slow down

        2015年,我国经济增长处于下行通道中,预计全年GDP增速约为6.9%左右。展望2016年,我国经济增长在面临国际国内诸多挑战的同时,也有深化改革带来的有利因素。预计2016年中国经济增速仍将进一步减缓,全年GDP增速约在6.7%左右,呈现前低后高趋势,预计上半年GDP增速为6.5%左右,下半年GDP增速有望达到6.8%左右。当前中国经济需要重点解决产能过剩与有效需求不足、杠杆率过高与潜在系统性风险过大、资源配置效率不高和经济增长质量不高等核心问题。

        China's economic growth is suffering downward in 2015, the annual GDP growth rate is predicted at around 6.9%. Although China's economy confronts several challenging issues both internationally and domestically, there are some positive factors from the deepening reform. The GDP growth in 2016 is expected to keep on slow down, with a growth rate of around 6.7%, about 6.5% in the first half year and 6.8% in the second half year. Currently, China should pay more attention on surplus supply and insufficient demand, high leverage and big potential systemic risk, low efficiency of resource allocation, and relatively poor quality of economic growth.