范英,莫建雷.中国碳市场顶层设计重大问题及建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2015,30(4):492-502.

中国碳市场顶层设计重大问题及建议

Key Issues for Top-level Design of China Carbon Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and Policy Recommendations

范英
中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心 北京100190
Fan Ying
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
莫建雷
中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心 北京100190
Mo Jianlei
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

         中国碳市场;可持续发展;区域协调发展;经济及产业结构;市场化改革;技术创新;政策协同

        China carbon emission trading scheme(ETS);sustainable development;regional harmonious development;economic structure adjustment;market-oriented reform;low carbon technology innovation;policy coordination

        基于中国碳市场建立的背景、社会经济影响及其有效运行条件,文章系统分析了与中国碳市场顶层设计密切相关的重大议题,包括中长期经济可持续发展、区域协调发展、产业及经济结构调整、低碳技术创新、能源市场化改革、与其他能源环境政策之间的协同互补等.根据中国当前经济发展阶段及未来改革发展方向,对未来全国碳市场顶层设计提出了相应的政策建议.

        This article comprehensively analyzes the impact of the carbon emission trading scheme(ETS)on the socio-economic development in China, in terms of medium and long-term economic growth, distributional effect and the regional equity, industry competiveness and economic structure adjustment, and incentives for low carbon technology innovation. The conditions for a well-functioned ETS in China are explored, such as market conditions of the whole economy and especially energy markets, potential conflict, and coordination between different coexisting policy instruments. Based on the systematic analysis and China's reality, recommendations on top-level design of the national ETS are proposed. First, ex-post adjusted flexible emission cap setting before 2030 is suggested to cope with the future uncertainties, stabilize carbon prices, and keep the long-term sustainable economic growth. Second, the carbon emission allowance allocation among different regions should be based on regional differences of GDP, per capita income, historical cumulative emissions, and so on, to promote the regional fairness and narrow gaps among regional development. Third, a suitable carbon emission allowance allocation approach among different sectors should be carefully designed, and targets for industrial competitiveness and economic structure adjustment should be coordinated. Forth, to promote low carbon technology innovation and investment to realize long term carbon abatement target, other policies are needed in addition to suitable ETS design. Fifth, indirect emissions can be included in the ETS in short term to improve the efficiency of the market, however, market-oriented reform in energy sectors is an essential condition to build a nationwide ETS. Sixth, climate policy, economic policy, pollution abatement policy, and renewable energy policy should be well co-designed to achieve multi-targets of social-economic development. Only in this way, ETS can play an important role to effectively decrease the abatement costs.