杨青峰.[2015年第2期] 云计算时代关键技术预测与战略选择[J].中国科学院院刊,2015,30(2):.

[2015年第2期] 云计算时代关键技术预测与战略选择

key technology forecast and strategic choice for cloud computing

杨青峰
Yang Qingfeng

         云计算，虚拟化，分布式计算，软件定义一切（SDX），工业 4.0

        cloud computing, virtualization, distributed computing, software defined everything（SDX）,Industry 4.0

        云计算一般被定义为在网络环境下计算资源的交付和使用方式， 用户通过网络按 需、易扩展的方式获得所需服务。 它的目的是实现计算资源能够像自来水和电一样按需供 应， 从这个意义上， 云计算也可以称为“自来计算”。 云计算以新的计算资源交付和使用方式 作为出发点，将从根本上颠覆传统信息技术。 云计算是此轮信息技术革命的核心，同时，云计 算的应用终将会推动新工业革命的发展。 云计算是一系列复杂技术的综合运用 ， 细分技术领 域也在不断发展和演化中。 文章对云计算细分技术的演化做出了一个大致的预测， 并对中国 云计算企业应用和云计算产业发展提出了建议。

        The general definition of cloud computing is a computing method in which large groups of remote servers are networkedto allow centralized data storage and online access to computer services or resources. Cloud computing relies on sharingof resources to achieve coherence and economy of scale, similar to a utility（like the electricity grid） over a network. In thissense, cloud computing can also be called unsolicited calculation. Cloud computing is the core of the information technology revolution, and it will subvert the traditional information technology fundamentally. This subversion is mainly reflected in below four: the external form of hardware is no longer important; unstructured data is becoming rather important;software is becoming more fragmented; and application software will no longer contain managementthoughts. From the perspective of implementation, cloud computing is the integrated application of a seriesof technology. Among them, virtualization and distributed computing are the two most basic technologies. Virtualization is mainly used to achieve server consolidation and virtual desktop, while distributed computingis mainly used to integrate geographically-distributed computing resources and handle big data applications. Given the development trend in recent years, software defined everything（SDX） is the direction of cloud computingtechnology development. By virtue of SDX, people’ s understanding of cloud computing will be raised to anew height. Now, more and more enterprises have realized that cloud computing not only reconstructs the informationtechnology system, but also reshapes the business model. On the blueprint of the fourth industrial revolution,cloud computing will be an importantpiece of infrastructure. In this paper, the development tendency of the key technologyfor cloud computing is forecasted. The next five years will be a period of transition from the old to the new.Traditional technology will continue to occupy the core position, but cloud computing will gradually replaceperipheral hardware and applications. New equipment and technology will be introduced, while the oldequipment will be phased out day by day. In the next ten years, most of cloud computing technology will becomemore mature, and some important technologies will become increasingly popular. Cloud computing era will bejust around the corner, and new business model will come into being. In the next 20 years, cloud computingtechnology will be well-developed. Private clouds, public clouds, and hybrid clouds will be widely applied in enterprises.The enterprise application software componentization will be achieved, and will provide services basedon SaaS. In this paper, suggestions to promote the industry application of cloud computing and the development of thecloud computing industry are providedas well.（1）The government needs to stipulaterelevant policies and standardsfor cloud computing applications as soon as possible, and release appropriate incentive policies to promoteenterprise’ s cloud computing applications. A series of enterprise cloud computing demonstrationprojects help enterprises to realize the value of cloud computing applications, thus to speed up the application anddevelopment of the enterprise cloud computing.（2）The most outstanding question of the Chinese cloud computingindustry is talent and capital. The government needs to create a long-term mechanism for cloud-computing talent cultivation, and help Chinese cloud computing providers to get financial support, which will help to narrowthe gap between the Chinese cloud computing industry and global cloud computing giants. It is also pointout that, as for the Chinese information industry, the development of cloud computing and other related technologies can be regarded asa rare opportunity.