姬强,刘炳越,席雯雯,范英.[2015年第1期] 2015年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2015,30(1):.

[2015年第1期] 2015年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测

International crude oil market analysis and price forecast in 2015

姬强 刘炳越 席雯雯 范英
1 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所 北京 100190 2 中国科学技术大学统计与金融系 合肥 230026 3 中国科学技术大学管理学院 合肥 230026
Ji Qiang Liu Bingyue Xi Wenwen Fan Ying
1 Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China； 2 Department of Statistics and Finance, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China； 3 School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China

         石油市场， OPEC，美元汇率，油价预测

        crude oil market, OPEC, exchange rate of American dollar, forecast of crude oil price

        全球石油供给体系的再平衡将成为左右油价未来走势的基础， 也将决定 2015 年国 际油价的整体运行水平。 此外， 全球经济复苏进度、美国货币政策走向、市场投机活跃程度、 地缘政治动态都将对 2015 年油价波动产生不同程度的影响。 通过自主研发的油价综合分析 预测系统， 我们预测， 2015 年， 国际油价将在各方博弈下低位运行， Brent年平均油价为 72 美 元/桶， WTI年平均油价为 67 美元/桶，平均价差将缩小至 5 美元/桶。

        Looking ahead to 2015, the game between the traditional oil-producing countries and the emerging energy consuming countries will play a key role in determining the trend of international oil prices. The internal divergence between the OPEC members on production decisions will influence oil market supply. Moreover, U.S. monetary policy adjustment and its impact on global capital flow could also send shockwaves through the oil market. Using our oil price analysis and forecasting synthetic system, we forecast that in 2015, the risk of uncertainty in the international oil market will increase and there will be an upward trend in oil prices after an initial fall. Overall, we predict that the Brent average year price may stand at 72 dollars per barrel, with the WTI average year price standing at 67 dollars per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI will therefore be narrowed to 5 dollars per barrel. In addition, global crude oil will still be over capacity in 2015 and the loose balance of oversupply will not change. World oil demand will increase slightly and China will be the main driver of oil demand growth. The world’ s oil supply will continue to rise, which is mainly from North America, Latin America, and China. Meanwhile, the commercial oil inventory of the OECD countries will raise a little, which will put pressure on the market and suppress oil prices. In 2015, the basic situation of moderate global economic recovery will continue. On the whole, the trend for differential development across the global economy will be more apparent, with America return to a strong path of recovery and the Euro zone countries experiencing a continuing weak recovery, i.e., emerging economies will face structural adjustment and slowdown the development. Oil market speculation will be limited further, with global capital flows affecting speculative activity. The normalization of market trading behaviour will make market operations more orderly and the disturbances caused by speculation on oil prices will be limited within a certain range. Dollar-exchange-rate appreciation is highly expected, which will push down oil prices. The end of quantitative-easing-focused monetary policies will enhance the attractiveness of dollar assets. Meanwhile, global capital will flow into U.S. again, which will further raise the dollar’ s value. Political games have become a new dominant force in oil prices, indicating that a new order is being formed in the international oil market. International oil trade patterns are undergoing dramatic changes, with a furious fight for market dominance and involvement in international interests taking place. Competition has reached a new level in this regard. Under this new environment of competition, following recommendations are put forward：（1）To take the advantages of large oil-importing country to strengthen its bargaining chips in international negotiations. It is suggested for China to establish multiple energy cooperation relations with major oil producers such as Russia and Saudi Arabia in order to expand its cooperation network in relation to overseas oil；（2） To speed up the pace of acquisition and investment in low-risk areas and promote the use of international oil and gas resources to ensure its long-term energy security；（3） To import more oil, relaxing restrictions on the import operation qualifications of enterprises and encouraging the construction of business inventories in order to accelerate the development of the strategic petroleum reserve system；（4） To bring domestic crude oil futures to market as soon as possible to create stronger influence in global oil markets, especially in Asia-Pacific petroleum pricing system; and； （5）To reform its pricing mechanisms on refined petroleum products in order to ensure that domestic prices maintain a close relationship with international prices.