中国科学院预测科学研究中心.[2015年第1期] 2015年中国经济形势展望及预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2015,30(1):.

[2015年第1期] 2015年中国经济形势展望及预测

Prospect of China’ s economy in 2015 and its macroeconomic forecasting

中国科学院预测科学研究中心
中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190
Center of Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences,

         GDP增速，物价，投资，消费，进出口，预测

        GDP growth, CPI, investment, consumption, imports and exports, forecast

        2014 年， 我国经济总体上保持了稳增长、低通胀的良好局面， 预计全年 GDP 增速为 7.4%左右， CPI增速在 2.1%左右。 展望 2015 年， 我国经济增长仍将面 临着很多不确定性，经济增速将进一步减缓。 但我国经济长期增长的主要动力依 然强劲， 深化改革的政策红利将逐步释放， 2015 年我国经济增速不会出现大幅度 下滑。 预计 2015 年 GDP 增速将呈现前低后高的走势， 年度 GDP 增速约为 7.2%； 通货膨胀压力降低， CPI 逐渐走低， 全年 CPI 涨幅在 1.3%左右。 从三大需求看， 2015 年进出口增速将有所回升， 出口额同比增长约 6.3%， 进口额同比增长约 5.5%， 贸易顺差也将增加； 消费将保持平稳增长， 预计 2015 年社会消费品零售总 额增速在 11%左右， 与 2014 年相比略有下降； 投资增速稳中略降， 预计 2015 年固 定资产投资增速在 15%左右， 和 2014 年相比降低约 0.8 个百分点。 三大需求之 中，消费对我国经济增长的贡献将有所扩大，中国经济结构将有所改善。

        In 2014, China’ s economy has been at a relatively sound state with stable growth and low inflation. We expect that the GDP growth rate would be about 7.4% and CPI would be about 2.1% for 2014. There are a lot of uncertainties for China’ s economy in 2015, and the economic growth will further slow down. Nevertheless, the long-term driving force for China’ s economy is still strong, and the policy benefit of deepening reform will appear gradually. Therefore, there will not be a big slowdown for 2015. We predict that China’ s economic growth in 2015 will go low at the first half year and will go up at the second half year, and the yearly growth rate will be around 7.2%. CPI in 2015 will keep on going down, and the yearly CPI will be around 1.3%. The foreign trade will be improved, and the growth rates of exports and imports might be around 6.3% and 5.5% respectively. The balance of foreign trade in 2015 will increase slightly. The consumptions in 2015 will keep a relatively stable pace with the growth rate about 11%, slightly lower than that in 2014. The growth rate of investment might be around 15%, 0.8% lower than that of 2014. The consumption contribution to GDP will be enlarged, which improves China’ s economic structure.