范英,姬强,朱磊,莫建雷.2011年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2011,(1):44-48.

2011年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测

International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2011

范英
中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所;中国科学院预测科学研究中心
Fan Ying
Center for Energy&Environment Policy Research,Institute of Policy&Management,CAS； Center for Forecasting Science,CAS
姬强
中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
Ji Qiang
Center for Energy&Environment Policy Research,Institute of Policy&Management,CAS
朱磊
中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
Zhu Lei
Center for Energy&Environment Policy Research,Institute of Policy&Management,CAS
莫建雷
中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所
Mo JianLei
Center for Energy&Environment Policy Research,Institute of Policy&Management,CAS

         石油市场;油价预测;经济复苏

        oil market analysis;oil price forecast;economy recovery

        文章在总结2010年国际油价波动特征的基础上,分析了2011年影响国际石油市场形势的主要因素,认为2011年全球宏观经济形势仍将主导国际油价走势,而石油市场供需、市场投机及监管、美元汇率以及地缘政治等因素都将在不同程度上助推油价的短期波动。结合对形势的判断和我们研究的模型,我们预测,如果全球经济继续维持目前的缓和复苏状态,2011年国际油价将整体处于窄幅上涨趋势,全年平均油价为87.7美元/桶。但是,如果欧洲债务危机出现恶化,油价将可能回落至70美元区间;相反,在弱势美元及投机力量的助推下,油价也可能冲高突破100美元/桶。

        The paper reviews the volatility characteristics of international crude oil prices in 2010,and investigates the main factors influencing the trend of international oil market in 2011.The analysis indicates that the international oil prices are still mainly affected by global macro-economy in 2011,while the factors for oil market supply and demand,speculation power and supervision,US dollar exchange rate and geopolitics boost the short-term volatility of oil prices to some extent.Based on the analysis,we forecast that oil prices will present narrowly upward trend if the global economy continues to maintain the current state of relaxation recovery,and the average year price of 2011 may stand at 87.7 dollar per barrel.However,if the European debt crisis worsens, oil prices will probably drop to 70 dollar range;on the contray,oil prices may break through 100 dollar per barrel pushed by the weakness in the US dollar and strong speculation power.