杨晓光.2011年我国经济形势分析与展望[J].中国科学院院刊,2011,(1):36-43.

2011年我国经济形势分析与展望

Outlook of China’s Economic Prospect in 2011

杨晓光
中国科学院预测科学研究中心
Yang Xiaoguang
Center of Forecasting Science,CAS 100190 Beijing

         经济增长;通货膨胀;进出口;预测

        economic growth;inflation;exports and imports;prediction

        2010年,在复杂多变的国内外环境下,我国保持了经济平稳较快发展的良好态势,预计全年GDP增长率可达10.1%的高位。2011年我国经济仍将保持平稳较快发展态势。预测2011年GDP增速呈前低后高趋势,全年GDP增速约为9.8%,经济增长的主要特点是:经济增长主要是来自内需的推动;消费对经济增长的贡献率有所上升,但仍低于正常水平;投资增速下降;进出口增速下降。2011年我国物价形势依然严峻,但稳健的货币政策、有效的价格调控政策及持续粮食丰收等因素将确保严重的通货膨胀不会发生,预计全年CPI约为3.7%。2011年物价上涨主要因素是由于农产品价格上升,工资提高和进口原油、铁矿石等价格上涨造成的,属于成本推动型通货膨胀和输入型通货膨胀。2011年我国进出口贸易面临着较大的困难。一方面,我国主要贸易伙伴国家经济复苏缓慢,发达国家债务危机警报未除,我国贸易外需存在较大的不确定性;另一方面,2010年全球各国宽松的货币政策为2011年全球范围通货膨胀上行压力埋下了伏笔。特别是,对基础类原材料价格普遍具有较强的上涨预期。因此,我国未来一年进口价格仍面临较大的上行压力。但是,整体来看,我国进出口的发展仍是机遇大于挑战,对外贸易将在波动中缓慢复苏。2011年整体外贸有可能呈现前低后高的走势,顺差在下半年可能面临较大压力。预计2011年我国进出口总额同比增长大约19.4%;其中出口同比增长大约18.6%;进口同比增长大约20.3%;顺差约为2 014亿美元。

        China’s economy has been keeping a stable and fast growth in 2010 under a complicate and changing international environment.We estimate that the national GDP growth will be 10.1%in 2010.In 2011,China’s economy will confront a lot of challenge,but the economy will still stay on the stable and fast track if the central government could have a good balance between the economic growth and inflation control.We predict that the trend of quarterly GDP growth rates will go from low to high,and annual GDP growth may reach 9.8%in 2011. The main features of economic growth might be as follows:domestic demand will be a major driven force of the economic growth,the contribution of consumption to the economic growth might increase,and the investment growth and total foreign trade growth might decline. China was under a relatively high inflation pressure,The CPI has been in an increasing state for the whole year,reaching 5.1%in November 2010,the highest in 26 consecutive months.The price index of raw materials and the producer price has being going high too.The inflation pressure will be serious too in 2011.But the prudent monetary policy,efficient measure of price control,and the bumper harvest of last several years,make high inflation impossible.We forecast that the annual CPI of 2011 will be around 3.7%.The main driven forces behind inflation pressure are price hike of agriculture products,crude oil and ore,and wage increasing. Foreign trade in 2011might meet some difficult.The economic recovery of major trade partners will be slow. The risk of debt crisis in western countries has not been reduced.Therefore the foreign demand of 2011 is quite uncertain.Moreover,the global loose monetary policy in 2010 presents a global inflation pressure.There is a relatively strong expectation for elementary raw materials.The import price in 2011 will have a large pressure to go high.Anyway,there is more opportunity than challenge.The foreign trade will still go up.We estimate that the growth rate of exports and imports together is around 19.4%,while the growth rate of exports is about 18.6%,and the growth rate of imports is about 20.3%,and the trade balance is about 201.4 billion dollars.