杨晓光,欧阳亮,程建华.2007年中国经济增长形势分析与预测[J].中国科学院院刊,2007,(1):6-14.

2007年中国经济增长形势分析与预测

2007’s Economic Growth:Analysis and Forecasting

杨晓光
Yang Xiaoguang
欧阳亮
Ouyang Liang
程建华

         经济增长;宏观调控;景气分析;经济预测

        economic growth;macro-adjust policies;business cycle analysis;economic forecasting

        2006年中国经济整体呈现出“增长速度较快、物价走势平稳、经济效益显著改善”的良好局面。展望2007年,尽管存在世界经济增长减缓、国际国内市场资源品价格居高不下、国内粗放的经济增长方式短期内难有彻底改变等若干不利因素,但中国经济的巨大内在增长动力依然没有改变。经济景气指数分析和计量预测模型均表明,2007年中国经济仍将继续保持高速增长的态势,2007年年底增长速度有可能小幅回落。预测结果显示,2007年GDP增长率约为9.8%,工业增加值增速为15.8%,城镇固定资产投资完成额大约增长23.5%,社会消费品零售总额大约增长14.1%。

        China has a quite good economic performance in 2006 with about 10.5% GDP growth, and about 1.4% CPI. Look ahead 2007, although there exist some difficulties such as world economy is going slowly, the prices of resource products are at high positions in both domestic and international markets, and the crude economic growth pattern does not change, the great internal driven force of China’s economy is still at its high level. Business cycle analysis indicates that China’s economy will keep it high growth trend, and the speed will slow down at the end of 2007. Based on econometric models, we predict that the annual GDP growth rate is about 9.8%, the annual growth rate of Industrial Value-Added is about 15.8%, the annual growth rate of investment is about 23.5% and the annual growth rate of consumption is about 14.1%.