能源转型下的锂、钴、镍资源需求及回收潜力分析——基于电动汽车的视角

Analysis of demand and recycling potential of lithium, cobalt, and nickel under energy transition—From perspective of electric vehicles

        应雄¹(中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190)
        汪寿阳¹(中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190)
        杨宇瑶^2*(北京大学 光华管理学院 北京 100871)

         碳中和;能源转型;资源安全;循环回收

        carbon neutrality;energy transition;resource security;recycling

        近年来锂、钴、镍金属的需求快速增长，中国、美国、欧盟等将这3种金属列为战略性关键矿产。文章研究了中国和全球电动汽车产业对锂、钴、镍需求的增长情况，预测了3种金属的回收潜力，研判了我国锂、钴、镍面临的资源安全挑战。文章建议加强海外矿产资源开发国际合作，提高对海外资产和权益的保驾护航能力；加快建设电动汽车电池循环回收体系，通过布局电池回收网络和监管体系，保障我国锂、钴、镍金属的供应安全，为实现“双碳”目标提供有力支撑。

        With the rapid growth of demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel, China, the United States, and the European Union have classified them as critical minerals. This study investigates the rise of China’s and the global electric vehicle industry in relation to the demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel, forecasts the potential for recycling these metals, and evaluates the challenges to resource security of these metals faced by China. The findings underscore the necessity of enhancing international collaboration in mineral extraction abroad and enhancing capabilities to safeguard overseas assets and equity. The study advocates for expediting the establishment of an electric vehicle battery recycling infrastructure. The aim of establishing such a battery recycling network and monitoring system is to ensure a secure supply of lithium, cobalt, and nickel metals in China, thereby offering substantial support in achieving the objectives of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”.