中国低碳政策演进、阶段特征与治理模式变革

Evolution, stage characteristics and governance model transformation of China’s low-carbon policy

        魏亿钢^1,2,3(北京航空航天大学 经济管理学院 北京 100191;北京航空航天大学 低碳治理与政策智能实验室 北京 100191;北京航空航天大学 城市运行应急保障模拟技术北京市重点实验室 北京 100191)
        石佳伟¹(北京航空航天大学 经济管理学院 北京 100191)
        许冠南^4*(北京邮电大学 经济管理学院 北京 100876)

         低碳政策;政策主题;演化分析;治理模式变革

        low-carbon policy;policy themes;evolving analysis;governance model transformation

        构建“双碳”政策体系、实现“双碳”目标，亟须对我国低碳政策发展脉络和治理模式变革历程进行系统梳理。基于政策变迁理论，构筑“政策目标—政策主题—政策波动”分析框架，利用文本挖掘技术和政策计量方法对我国2000—2021年间颁布的1 743条低碳政策进行分析，总结低碳政策发展的阶段特征及演化路径，定量评价各政策主题在不同阶段的贡献度，并系统刻画我国低碳治理模式的变革。研究表明，低碳政策主题经历了由“污染防治、生态保护并重”到“节能减排”，再到“节能减排减污降碳协同”的低碳治理战略布局演变；低碳治理经历着探索式治理、运动式治理、多元式治理和适应式治理的模式变革历程，不同模式下约束力度和激励力度组合特征存在显著的阶段性差异。

        A systematic review of China’s low-carbon policy and paradigm transformation is imperative for establishing a welldesigned policy system to achieve the “dual carbon” goals. Based on the theory of policy change, this study constructs an analytical framework of “policy objectives—policy themes—policy fluctuations”. This study uses text mining techniques and policy measurement methods to analyze 1 743 low-carbon policies implemented in China from 2000 to 2021. The study summarizes the stage characteristics and evolutionary path of low-carbon policy development in China, evaluates the contribution of each policy theme at different stages, and portrays the paradigm shift in low-carbon governance. The findings reveal that the main low-carbon policy themes have evolved from “equal emphasis on pollution prevention and ecological protection”, to “energy conservation and emission reduction”, and finally to the strategic layout of “energy conservation and emission reduction, pollution reduction and carbon synergy” in low-carbon governance. China’s low-carbon governance has undergone a transformation process through exploratory governance, movement-based governance, pluralistic governance, and adaptive governance, with distinct significant stage differences in the combination of constraints and incentives under different paradigms.