中国城市经济运行态势与展望（2023—2024年）

Operational situation and outlook of China’s urban economy(2023—2024)

        高国力(中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心 北京 100038)
        赵坤(中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心 北京 100038)
        鲍家伟(中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心 北京 100038)
        张晓明(中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心 北京 100038)
        徐勤贤**(中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心 北京 100038)
        孔翠芳(中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心 北京 100038)
        王女英(中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心 北京 100038)
        白玮(中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心 北京 100038)
        倪碧野(中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心 北京 100038)
        杜澍(中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心 北京 100038)
        杨颍(中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心 北京 100038)
        王凯(中国城市和小城镇改革发展中心 北京 100038)

         城市经济;经济运行;形势分析;经济展望

        urban economy;economic operation;situation analysis;economic outlook

        文章以我国297个地级及以上城市为分析对象，对其2023年以来经济运行的总体情况、亮点热点和突出问题进行分析回顾，并展望2024年城市经济运行态势。总体来看，2023年以来我国城市经济运行总体回升向好，各领域亮点热点频现，但出口下行明显、房地产风险频发、地方债务风险加大、消费需求释放不足等问题不容忽视。展望2024年上半年，房地产、投资、消费、开放等领域宏观调控的政策效应将集中释放，各城市应突出问题导向，准确把握2024年发展重点，制定针对性政策举措，推动城市经济高质量发展。

        This study takes 297 cities at prefecture level or above in China (including 4 municipalities directly under the central government, 15 sub provincial cities, and 278 prefecture level cities) as the analysis objects, analyzes and reviews the overall situation, highlights, hotspots, and prominent problems of their economic operation in 2023, and looks forward to the economic development trend of cities in 2024. In general, since 2023, China’s urban economy has rebounded and improved, with frequent highlights and hotspots in various fields. Nevertheless, issues such as a significant decline in exports, frequent real estate risks, increased local debt risks, and insufficient release of consumer demand cannot be ignored. Looking ahead to the first half of 2024, the policy effects of macroeconomic regulation in areas such as real estate, investment, consumption, and openness will be concentrated and released. Cities should promote high-quality urban economic development by highlighting problem-oriented approach, accurately grasping the development priorities for 2024, and formulating targeted policy measures.