中国重污染产业空间集聚及其环境效应：特征与启示

Spatial agglomeration and environmental effects of heavy polluting industries in China: Characteristics and enlightenment

        陈宏阳(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101;
中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049)
        余建辉*(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101;
中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049)
        张文忠(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101;
中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049)

         重污染产业;集聚;污染避难所;环境规制;环境效应

        heavy polluting industry;agglomeration;pollution heaven hypothesis;environmental regulation;environmental effect

        重污染产业是工业污染物的重要来源。了解中国重污染产业的空间集聚特征、影响因素、集聚机制及其环境效应，可以识别潜在的污染风险区域，以应对日益严峻的环境污染问题。文章梳理了中国1999—2021年的工业经济数据，刻画了重污染产业的空间分布和集聚特征，发现：（1）山东、江苏、浙江和广东是过去20多年重污染产业发展的高产值地区，而新疆、内蒙古、山西、陕西、河南和四川则是未来重污染产业集聚的潜在地区；（2）生产成本（要素禀赋）、环境规制、经济发展水平、市场份额和产业结构是重污染产业发展的关键影响因素，劳动力成本和重污染产业发展存在明显的“倒U”关系；（3）重污染产业发展存在区域异质性，东部地区的“污染避难所”效应显著，中西部地区寻求低劳动成本、资源富集的区位导向性更加明显；（4）重污染产业的集聚显著增加了工业污染物的排放量，重污染产业的集聚与环境污染存在明显的“倒U”关系，而环境规制却没有发挥降污减排的有效作用。在此基础上，文章进一步提出了各地区应对重污染产业集聚，以及降低潜在污染风险的规避措施和政策建议，以期能为实现美丽中国建设目标提供参考。

        Heavy polluting industries are the important sources of industrial pollutant. Understanding the spatial agglomeration characteristics, influencing factors, agglomeration mechanism and environmental effects of China’s heavy polluting industries can help identify potential pollution risk areas to cope with increasingly severe environmental pollution problems. Based on the industrial economic data from 1999 to 2021, the spatial distribution and agglomeration characteristics of heavy polluting industries are characterized. It is found that: (1) Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong are the regions with high output value of the development of heavy polluting industries in the past 20 years, while Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, and Sichuan are the potential areas for the agglomeration of heavy polluting industries in the future. (2) Production cost (factor endowment), environmental regulation, economic development level, market share, and industrial structure are the key factors affecting the development of heavy polluting industries, and there is an obvious “inverted U” relationship between labor cost and heavy polluting industries development. (3) There is regional heterogeneity in the development of heavy pollution industries. The eastern region has a significant effect of pollution shelter, while the central and western regions have a more obvious orientation to seek low labor costs and resource enrichment. (4) The agglomeration of heavy polluting industries significantly increases the emission of industrial pollutants, and there is an obvious inverted U relationship with environmental pollution, but environmental regulations have not played a role in reducing pollution and emission. On this basis, the countermeasures and policy suggestions are further put forward to deal with the agglomeration of heavy polluting industries and reduce the potential pollution risk, providing reference to achieve the goal of Beautiful China.