鄱阳湖极端干旱的影响、成因与对策

Impacts, contributing factors and countermeasures of extreme droughts in Poyang Lake

        张奇¹(河海大学 长江保护与绿色发展研究院 南京 210098)
        薛晨阳²(中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所 南京 210008)
        夏军^3*(武汉大学 水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室 武汉 430072)

         气候变化;极端干旱;水利工程协同调控;水安全;鄱阳湖

        climate change;extreme droughts;synergistic regulation of hydraulic engineering;water safety;Poyang Lake

        变化环境下鄱阳湖近20年来水文节律发生了显著调整，水位持续下降，干旱化趋势严重。2022年鄱阳湖更是遭遇特大干旱，水位刷新历史最低记录。鄱阳湖极端干旱给湖区经济社会和生态环境带来重大影响，引起了政府和社会的高度重视和广泛关注。文章基于长时间系列气象水文数据分析、已有研究结果及水文预测模拟，分析了鄱阳湖干旱的影响与成因，并提出了对策与建议。

        In the past 20 years, the hydrological regime of Poyang Lake changed significantly. The lake water level has been continuously decreasing, resulting in severe droughts. In particular, an extreme drought occurred in 2022, when the lake area shrank to less than 300 km². The 2022 extreme drought in Poyang Lake had great impacts on economy, society and ecological environment, which aroused great attentions and wide concerns. Based on long-term data series of meteorological and hydrological data and the existing research outcomes and with the aid of hydrological modeling, this study analyzed the impacts and contributing factors of the 2022 drought in Poyang Lake. Suggestions are also offered on the potential synergistic regulation of hydraulic engineering to cope with such droughts in the future to secure water safety in the middle Yangtze River.