美丽中国“35目标”和“50愿景”情景模拟

Scenario simulation of “35 goals” and “50 vision” for Beautiful China Initiative

        朱会义(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101)
        杨林生(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101)
        戚伟(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101)
        许尔琪(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101)
        陈介威(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101)
        葛全胜*(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101)

         美丽中国;“35目标”;“50愿景”;情景模拟

        the Beautiful China Initiative;"35 goals";"50 vision";scenario simulation

        全面建成美丽中国，实现人与自然和谐共生的现代化，是未来30年中国生态文明建设的总目标。总目标包含“35目标”和“50愿景”共2个阶段性目标。文章首先从生态系统要素、结构、过程和功能角度，阐述了对美丽中国目标的理解，继而构建了刻画目标的指标体系，并采用情景模拟方法，模拟了气候变化、人口下降、经济增长趋势下美丽中国“35目标”和“50愿景”。结果表明，至2035年，全国总人口14.4亿人，国内生产总值（GDP）为200万亿元，进入中等发达国家行列。全国森林覆盖率达26%，草原综合植被覆盖度达60%，沙化土地治理率达75%；地表水水质达到Ⅲ类以上，近海海域水质达到Ⅱ类以上；城市空气质量达到国家优良标准。至2050年，全国总人口13.65亿人，GDP为380万亿元，迈入高收入国家行列。森林覆盖率30%，草原综合植被覆盖度65%，沙化土地全部得到有效治理；地表水和近海海域水质均达到Ⅱ类标准；城市空气质量达到发达国家水平。现实状况与目标愿景尚存在明显差距，如期实现美丽中国目标愿景，未来需大力推进减污、降碳、扩绿、增粮和绿色发展。

        Realizing the Beautiful China Initiative is the general goal of China’s ecological civilization construction in the next 30 years. The overall goal includes two phased goals: “35 goals” and “50 vision”. This study first expounds the understanding of the goal from the aspects of ecosystem elements, structure, process, and function, and then constructs an index system to describe the goal and simulates the “35 goals” and “50 vision” under the trend of climate change, population decline and economic growth. The results show that, by 2035, China will have a population of 1.44 billion (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) and a GDP of 200 trillion yuan, making it one of the moderately developed countries. The national forest coverage rate will be 26%; the quality of surface water will reach above Class III, and the quality of offshore waters will reach Class II or above; and urban air quality will reach national excellent standards. By 2050, the country will have a population of 1.365 billion and GDP 380 trillion yuan, entering the ranks of high-income countries. The national forest coverage rate will be 30%; the water quality of surface water and offshore waters will reach Class II standards; and the urban air quality will reach the level of developed countries. There is still a clear gap between the reality and the vision. To achieve the two phased goals of the Beautiful China Initiative as scheduled, we need to vigorously promote pollution reduction, carbon reduction, green expansion, grain increase, and green development in the future.