中国中等技术现状分析

Empirical analysis for China's middle-technology status

        赖格^1*(香港中文大学(深圳) 前海国际事务研究院 深圳 518172)
        孟渤²(日本贸易振兴机构亚洲经济研究所 千叶 261-8545)

         中等技术陷阱;中国;高质量发展;技术进步

        middle-technology trap;China;high-quality development;technological progress

        经过多年的发展，中国制造业实力的提升有目共睹，但仍然没有摆脱“大而不强、全而不优”的局面，该现象的讨论引起学术界和政策界的广泛关注。文章认为技术进步是制造业高质量发展的核心，并通过实证研究发现，后发国家在经济发展初期，通过技术模仿实现经济增长从而促进收入提升相对容易，但在技术模仿之后要想实现技术赶超和原创性技术进步并非易事。基于这一事实，文章认为中国现阶段正处于“前有埋伏”（来自先发国家的技术封锁）、“后有追兵”（来自其他后发国家的低价竞争压力）的中等技术水平；只有大力推进原创性技术进步，才能避免掉入“中等技术陷阱”。

        After years of development, it is evident that China’s manufacturing industry has been seen a significant improvement in its scale and coverage. However, it has still not broken free from the dilemma of being big but not strong, comprehensive but not excellent. This phenomenon has garnered extensive attention from both the academic and policy communities. This study contends that technological progress is the core of high-quality development in the manufacturing industry. Through empirical research, it is discovered that for latecomer countries in the early stages of economic development, achieving economic growth and income improvement through technology imitation is relatively feasible. However, it becomes a challenging task to achieve technological catch-up and original technological progress after the phase of imitation. Based on this fact, it is argued that China is currently in a state of medium-level technology. It faces the potential threat of ambush from the front (technological blockades from advanced countries) and the pressure of pursuit from behind (low-cost competition from other latecomer countries). To avoid falling into the middle-technology trap, it is imperative to vigorously promote original technological progress.