“一带一路”共建国家低碳转型路径研究与气候合作建议
Research on low-carbon transition pathways and suggestions for climate cooperation of BRI countries
Research on low-carbon transition pathways and suggestions for climate cooperation of BRI countries
作者
朱开伟1,2(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;清华大学 能源环境经济研究所 北京 100084)
谭显春1,3(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049)
顾佰和1,3*(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049)
张建平4(商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院 北京 100710)
孔令斯1,3(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049)
谭显春1,3(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049)
顾佰和1,3*(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049)
张建平4(商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院 北京 100710)
孔令斯1,3(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049)
中文关键词
“一带一路”;低碳转型路径;气候变化;气候合作
英文关键词
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI);low-carbon transition pathways;climate change;climate cooperation
中文摘要
积极开展与“一带一路”共建国家的气候合作，对实现共建国家低碳转型和高质量发展有着重要的现实意义。文章利用“一带一路”能源经济模型（CGEM-BRI），模拟了不同典型浓度路径（RCP）和不同配额分配方式下“一带一路”共建国家的低碳转型路径，分析了共建国家低碳转型潜在的资金、能力建设和管理制度需求，给出了中国与共建国家开展气候合作的建议。研究发现，为实现2100年全球1.5℃温控目标，到2050年“一带一路”共建国家整体可再生能源占一次能源消费总量比重至少要达到65%；共建国家实现国家自主贡献（NDCs）中的低碳发展目标保守估计需要19.2万亿美元，且不同国家资金需求领域有着较大差异。为满足“一带一路”共建国家低碳转型的需求，中国需要加快气候合作战略与经济转型及国际化战略的深度对接；发挥中国在新能源领域的比较优势，助力共建国家能源低碳转型进程；推动中国气候变化南南合作基金的加速落实，促进“一带一路”绿色投融资合作；加强气候合作的能力建设，分享碳市场建设的经验，推动建立广泛参与、各尽所能、务实有效、合作共赢的全球气候治理体系。
英文摘要
Climate cooperation among Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries holds significant practical importance for achieving low-carbon transition and sustainable development within the BRI framework. To analyze the pathway towards low-carbon transition under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and emission quota allocation methods, the CGEM-BRI model was developed. The study also examined the potential requirements for climate finance, capacity building, and management system. Based on these findings, recommendations for climate cooperation between China and BRI countries were formulated. The study revealed that in order to limit global temperature rise for 1.5℃ in 2100, renewable energy sources should account for a minimum 65% of total primary energy consumption across all BRI countries by 2050. Achieving the low-carbon development goals outlined in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of major BRI countries is estimated to require at least $19.2 trillion, with varying funding needs across different countries. To facilitate this transition, China must expedite the integration of its climate cooperation strategy with its economic transition and internationalization strategy, thereby assisting BRI countries in their own transitions. China also need to utilize China' s comparative advantages in the field of new energy to accelerate the process of low-carbon energy transition in BRI countries. Furthermore, it is crucial to accelerate the implementation of the China Climate Change South-South Cooperation Fund and promote green investment and financing cooperation among BRI countries. Lastly, it is needed to strengthen capacity building initiatives for climate cooperation and foster the establishment of a global climate governance system that encourages broad participation.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20230526008
作者简介
朱开伟 清华大学能源经济环境研究所博士后。主要研究领域： 可持续发展、 能源经济、 能源低碳转型、 宏观政策分析等。
E-mail: zhukaiwei@tsinghua.edu.cn
ZHU Kaiwei Post Doctor of Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University. His research focuses on sustainable development, energy economy, low-carbon energy transformation, policy analysis, etc.
E-mail: zhukaiwei@tsinghua.edu.cn
顾佰和 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院副研究员， 中国科学院青年创新促进会会员。主要从事能源低碳转型战略与路径、碳排放管理与政策评价、 全球气候治理等方面的研究。
E-mail: gubaihe@casisd.cn
GU Baihe Associate Professor at Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Member of the Council of Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS (YIPA-CAS). He mainly engages in research on energy low-carbon transition strategy and pathway, carbon emission management and policy evaluation, and global climate governance.
E-mail: gubaihe@casisd.cn
E-mail: zhukaiwei@tsinghua.edu.cn
ZHU Kaiwei Post Doctor of Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University. His research focuses on sustainable development, energy economy, low-carbon energy transformation, policy analysis, etc.
E-mail: zhukaiwei@tsinghua.edu.cn
顾佰和 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院副研究员， 中国科学院青年创新促进会会员。主要从事能源低碳转型战略与路径、碳排放管理与政策评价、 全球气候治理等方面的研究。
E-mail: gubaihe@casisd.cn
GU Baihe Associate Professor at Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Member of the Council of Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS (YIPA-CAS). He mainly engages in research on energy low-carbon transition strategy and pathway, carbon emission management and policy evaluation, and global climate governance.
E-mail: gubaihe@casisd.cn
