“一带一路”共建国家气候变化的技术需求评估及推动南南技术合作的政策建议

Climate technology demand assessment for participating countries in Belt and Road Initiative and policy recommendations for promoting South-South technology cooperation

        陈敏鹏¹(中国人民大学 农业与农村发展学院 北京 100872)
        刘强²(清华大学 能源环境与经济研究所 北京 100084)
        高美勋¹(中国人民大学 农业与农村发展学院 北京 100872)
        滕飞^2*(清华大学 能源环境与经济研究所 北京 100084)

         “一带一路”倡议;技术需求评估;技术转移;南南合作;气候变化

        the Belt and Road Initiative;technology needs assessment;technology transfer;South-South cooperation;climate change

        本研究基于各国的技术需求评估报告和合作专利分类系统，开展了“一带一路”共建国家气候变化技术需求的特征评估。研究发现，66个“一带一路”共建国家共提及了726项气候技术需求，其中减缓262项、适应464项。可再生能源发电是减缓的优先需求，农林牧副渔生产中的适应技术是适应的优先需求。但是，不同区域的减缓技术需求呈现异质性，适应技术需求呈现共性。非洲地区的优先减缓需求是可再生能源发电、非化石燃料技术和土地部门的减缓技术，亚洲地区为可再生能源发电和具有减缓潜力的燃烧技术，拉丁美洲和大洋洲为道路交通部门的减缓技术。为促进中国向“一带一路”区域的气候技术转移与南南合作，我国提供的重点技术应与各国的重点需求相匹配、提升技术信息的透明性并强化需求与方案的国别研究。

        Belt and Road countries and regions have increasingly recognized the urgent need for climate mitigation and adaptation in order to achieve the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Transferring and disseminating climate technologies are effective ways in which developing countries in the region can enhance their capacity to address the challenges of climate change. This study assesses the characteristics of climate change technology needed in Belt and Road countries and regions, based on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) report as well as the Cooperative Patent Classification (CPC) system. It identifies and analyzes the priority needs for mitigation and adaptation technology needs in different areas. Results shows that climate technologies are in high demand in the Belt and Road region. A total of 726 climate technologies are included in the TNAs of 66 Belt and Road countries and regions, of which 262 are mitigation technologies and 464 are adaptation technologies. Almost all countries prioritize renewable energy for electricity generation (Y02E-10) for mitigation, with 135 technologies listed, covering Gross Domestic Production (GDP) of $5.3 trillion and a population of 1.9 billion. The most urgent need for adaptation technology is in agriculture, forestry, livestock, and fisheries production (Y02A-40), with 48 countries claiming 234 technologies for adaptation across this sector, covering $3.8 trillion in GDP and 1.61 billion in population. There is a high degree of heterogeneity in mitigation technology demands across regions. African countries are most in need of renewable energy generation technologies (Y02E-10), non-fossil fuel technologies (Y02E-50), and mitigation technologies for the land sector (Y02A-60). Asian countries are most interested in renewable energy generation and combustion technologies (Y02E-20), while Latin American and Oceania are most interested in mitigation technologies for road transport (Y02T-10). There is a high degree of commonality in the adaptation technology needs of all regions, with the priority needs of each region being primarily for adaptation technologies in agriculture, forestry, livestock and fishery production (Y02A-40) and technologies for harvesting, conserving, and efficiently using water (Y02A-20). In order to promote South-South technology cooperation between China and BRI developing countries, the proposed suggestions include: (1) better matching the technology supply by China with the demands in BRI countries and regions; (2) enhancing the transparency of technology information in China through various measures; (3) strengthening country-specific studies on climate technology needs and transfer strategy for BRI countries.