未来技术风险识别框架研究——基于技术经济安全视角
Research on Risk Identification Framework of Future Technology——Based on Perspective of Techno-economic Security
Research on Risk Identification Framework of Future Technology——Based on Perspective of Techno-economic Security
作者
陈捷(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190)
吴仲琦(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190)
代涛*(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190)
吴仲琦(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190)
代涛*(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190)
中文关键词
未来技术;风险;识别;技术经济安全
英文关键词
future technology;risk;identification;techno-economic security
中文摘要
新一轮科技革命和产业变革背景下，以颠覆性技术和新兴技术为代表的未来技术成为各国高度关注和博弈的焦点。未来技术不仅事关占据未来发展先机、提升国家实力和竞争力，而且关系到能否维护经济发展和国家安全。文章基于技术经济安全视角，分析了未来技术的内涵和特点，提出了未来技术的“三阶段三层次”经济安全影响机制，构建了“技术-经济-政策” 3 个维度的未来技术风险识别框架，在此基础上提出我国当前需关注的主要风险，并提出加强跟踪评估、强化战略研判、完善创新生态和优化治理模式等防范化解未来技术风险的举措。
英文摘要
Under the background of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, the future technology represented by disruptive technology and emerging technology has become the focus of attention and game among countries. The future technology is not only related to taking the lead in future development, enhancing national strength and competitiveness, but also related to whether the economy and national security can be maintained. Based on the perspective of techno-economic security, this study analyzes the connotation and characteristics of future technology, puts forward the ‘three stages and three levels' economic security influential mechanism of future technology, and constructs a three-dimensional risk identification framework of technology, economy and policy for future technology. On this basis, it proposes the main risks we should pay attention to at present, and measures to prevent future technology risks, such as strengthening the tracking evaluation, strengthening the strategic research, improving the innovation ecosystem, and optimizing the governance mode.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20221114001
作者简介
陈捷 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院第三方评估研究支撑中心助理研究员。主要研究领域：科技管理与科技评价。
E-mail: chenjie@casisd.cn
CHEN Jie Received Ph.D. degree from University of Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2016. Currently she is a research associate fellow of Third Party Evaluation and Research Support Center, Institutes of Science and Development, CAS. Her current research fields include science and technology management and evaluation.
E-mail: chenjie@casisd.cn
代涛 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院第三方评估研究支撑中心副主任、研究员。研究方向：科技管理与评价，技术经济评估。
E-mail: daitao@casisd.cn
DAI Tao Professor of Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASISD). Deputy Director of Third Party Evaluation and Research Support Center, CASISD. His current research interests include S&T management and evaluation, techno-economic evaluation.
E-mail: daitao@casisd.cn
E-mail: chenjie@casisd.cn
CHEN Jie Received Ph.D. degree from University of Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2016. Currently she is a research associate fellow of Third Party Evaluation and Research Support Center, Institutes of Science and Development, CAS. Her current research fields include science and technology management and evaluation.
E-mail: chenjie@casisd.cn
代涛 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院第三方评估研究支撑中心副主任、研究员。研究方向：科技管理与评价，技术经济评估。
E-mail: daitao@casisd.cn
DAI Tao Professor of Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASISD). Deputy Director of Third Party Evaluation and Research Support Center, CASISD. His current research interests include S&T management and evaluation, techno-economic evaluation.
E-mail: daitao@casisd.cn
