基于智库双螺旋法的科技前瞻研究

Science and Technology Foresight Based on Think Tank Double Helix Methodology
作者
        张凤1,2(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049)
        吴静1,2*(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 公共政策与管理学院 北京 100049)
        裴瑞敏1(中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190)
中文关键词
         科技前瞻;智库双螺旋法;战略研究;DIIS过程融合法;MIPS逻辑层次法
英文关键词
        S&T foresight;think tank double helix methodology;strategy study;data-information-intelligence-solution (DIIS);mechanismimpact-policy-solution (MIPS)
中文摘要
        科技前瞻是科技发展战略研究的一种重要形式,是科技智库发挥决策服务支撑作用的重要体现。科技前瞻作为智库大规模研究问题,在研究过程中面临学科交叉性挑战、相互关联性挑战、政策实用性挑战、社会影响性挑战、创新性挑战、不确定性挑战等“六大挑战”,具有高度复杂性,亟待形成科学化、标准化研究范式,以保障高质量科技前瞻成效。文章在探讨科技前瞻国内外研究进展的基础上,提出智库双螺旋法对科技前瞻的思维指导、过程指导、操作指导,形成了规范化、体系化的科技前瞻研究思路和方法,以期为科技发展战略研究提供借鉴。
英文摘要
        Science and technology (S&T) foresight is an important form of S&T development strategy study. Based on the needs of economic and social development and the law of S&T innovation and development, S&T foresight is a process of forming a consensus on the medium and long-term S&T development trends among experts in multiple disciplines and fields, so that to provide scientific basis and decision support for S&T planning and policy making. With the rapid development of technology over the world, carrying out S&T foresight is crucial for China to seize opportunities for technological innovation, seize the frontier and opportunities of technological revolution, realize selfreliance and self-improvement in S&T, and build into an S&T giant. However, as a large-scale think tank research project, S&T foresight faces systemic challenges and collaborative challenges from the organization of a large number of multidisciplinary and multi-field research teams. Meanwhile, in the research process of S&T foresight, it faces interdisciplinary challenges, interrelated challenges, practical policy challenges, social influential challenges, innovative challenges, and uncertain challenges. There is an urgent need to form a comprehensive and systematic research ideas and methodology for S&T foresight of think tank. To this end, this study analyzes the thinking guidance, process guidance, and operation guidance of the think tank double helix methodology for the S&T foresight. The thinking guidance of the double helix methodology to the S&T foresight is mainly reflected in the design of the overall work plan. Under the guidance of the double helix methodology, S&T foresight needs to grasp the foresight goals of S&T development from the national strategic needs, and comb the internal mechanism of S&T foresight based on historical data and current situation analysis; under the mechanism-impact-policy-solution (MIPS) architecture, through parallel relationship decomposition, serial relationship decomposition, and matrix relationship decomposition and other decomposition methods, the S&T foresight project can be decomposed into a number of independent sub-problems with inherent logical connections; focusing on the sub-problem research needs, a research team consist of multi-field expert with vertical hierarchical and horizontal cross-cutting relationship is formed, and a progressing schedule should be reached to form time coordination and research collaboration under the guidance of datainformation-intelligence-solution (DIIS). The process guidance and operation guidance of the double helix methodology for S&T foresight are embodied in the four stages of DIIS. Firstly, in the data collection stage of S&T foresight, it is necessary to scan and review the progress of S&T foresight issues over the world as well as selection criteria, to form a multi-dimensional data database. Secondly, in the stage of information disclosure, it is necessary to form the judgement on the current state of S&T development, future development vision, and selection criteria. Thirdly, in the stage of intelligence analysis, the key directions of S&T foresight can be comprehensively shaped through repeated iterations of objective data analysis and expert judgments. Finally, research reports and policy recommendation reports are produced to provide policymaking support for the S&T development.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.20211120005
作者简介
张凤 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院副院长、研究员。主要从事科技发展战略研究、创新政策研究和现代化研究等。主要参加和承担国家高端智库课题、国家社会科学基金课题、中国科学院战略研究专项等。代表性工作包括参与组织完成"中国至2050年重要领域科技发展路线图研究",发表《知识创新的原理和路径》和《世界现代化指数 1950-2010》等。
E-mail:fzhang@casisd.cn
ZHANG Feng Professor, Deputy Director of the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Her main research fields include the strategy of S&T, innovation policy and modernization study, etc. She mainly undertakes and participates in research projects supported by the Program of China Top Think Tanks, the National Social Science Foundation of China, the Strategy Research Program of CAS, etc. Her representative works include the organization of "Science & Technology in China:A Roadmap to 2050", and the published articles include The principle and route of knowledge innovation and World modernization indexes 1950 to 2010, etc.
E-mail:fzhang@casisd.cn
吴静 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院研究员。主要从事宏观政策模拟与分析,以及数字经济与数字化转型政策研究。先后主持或参与国家重点计划项目、国家自然科学基金项目、国家社会科学基金青项目、中国科学院战略性先导科技专项、中国科学院知识创新工程项目等 20余项研究任务。发表学术论文 50余篇,出版专著或合著 8部。
E-mail:wujing@casisd.cn
WU Jing Professor of the Institutes of Science and Development (ISD), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). She has long been engaged in the simulation and analysis of macroeconomic policies, and the research of digital economy and digital transformation policies. She has undertaken and participated in more than 20 research tasks that the sponsorships include the National Basic Research Program of China, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the National Social Science Foundation of China, the Strategic Priority Research Program of CAS, the Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS, etc. She has published more than 50 papers and authored or co-authored 8 monographs.
E-mail:wujing@casisd.cn
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